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NBA Odds, Trends & Picks Today: Will Utah Stay Hot at Home? (February 22)

The NBA All-Star Break is (finally) over. So what’s in store for tonight’s card? We’ve got two nationally televised games on TNT — action stars with the Phoenix Suns at the Dallas Mavericks and ends with the Los Angeles Lakers at the Golden State Warriors. Sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds and trends in hopes of finding one or two picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.

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NBA Odds Today: Thursday, February 22 | Odds via BetMGM

This article was originally written at 10 a.m. ET. Line movement notes are based on the opening numbers.

ORL: +230 | CLE: -275
ORL +7.5: -115 | CLE -7.5: -105
Over 216.5: -110 | Under 216.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

Do you love defense? That’s likely what we’ve got in store in this spot with the total trading at only 216.5. The Magic return from the All-Star Break without Markelle Fultz. The Cavs are listing Donovan Mitchell as questionable due to an illness but have no other noteworthy injuries. They’re still trading as a whopping 7.5-point home favorite.

The Magic have been the NBA’s most profitable team against the spread, boasting a 36-19 ATS record. Cleveland ranks fifth at 28-23-2. However, the Cavs struggle to meet expectations at home, where they are 13-13-1 ATS. Orlando is 18-11 ATS on the road but only 13-10 ATS as a road dog. The Cavs are back in action again tomorrow but the Magic get a night off.

Line movement notes: The spread hasn’t moved off the opening number but the total has ticked up by a point.

DET: +475 | IND: -650
DET +11.5: -110 | IND -11.5: -110
Over 246.5: -110 | Under 246.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

Adam Silver’s NBA is truly the world of nearly 250-point totals. The Indiana Pacers have ruled out Aaron Nesmith for this one while the Pistons are listing several players on the injury report, including Cade Cunningham (probable), Isaiah Stewart (questionable) and Quentin Grimes (doubtful). Unsurprisingly, the Pacers are a double-digit home favorite.

The Pistons are bad at winning but they’re not so bad at covering. Detroit is 26-27-1 ATS and 14-13 ATS on the road. Indiana is 29-25-3 ATS this year and 14-12-2 ATS at home. Importantly, the over is 19-9 in Indiana’s home games this season. It’s also 18-9 in Detroit’s road games. Both of these teams are off tomorrow.

Line movement notes: The opening total (248.5) has dipped by two points.

NYK: -105 | PHI: -115
NYK +1.5: -115 | PHI -1.5: -105
Over 227.5: -110 | Under 227.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The New York Knicks are road dogs against the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The Sixers have also ruled out Robert Covington and De’Anthony Melton, but at least Nicolas Batum is now questionable. The Knicks have ruled out OG Anunoby and Julius Randle, but Isaiah Hartenstein and Bojan Bogdanovic are both probable.

Philadelphia is the NBA’s third-most profitable team for spread bettors at 31-23 ATS and the most profitable team for over bettors at 32-22. The Knicks are a steady 29-24-2 ATS and are the third-most profitable team for under bettors at 32-23. The Knicks dip to 14-13-1 ATS on the road and 5-10-1 ATS as a road dog. The 76ers are 15-8 ATS as a home favorite. The Knicks get a night off before playing Boston on Saturday, but the 76ers have to host the Cavs tomorrow.

Line movement notes: The spread and total for this one haven’t meaningfully moved off the opening numbers.

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Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors NBA Odds & Trends

BKN: -105 | TOR: -115
BKN +1.5: -115 | TOR -1.5: -105
Over 231.5: -110 | Under 231.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors are scheduled for a mid-off tonight. Both sides are healthy for this one with no notable stories on the injury report. It’s the first game for Brooklyn’s new interim coach, Kevin Ollie, who replaces Jacque Vaughn. The Nets are on a two-game losing skid and sit at 4-6 SU over the last 10 games. The Raptors have lost three straight and are 3-7 SU over the last 10.

These teams are just not fun. The Nets are a bad 24-27-3 ATS. The Raptors are a similarly bad 25-29-1 ATS. Brooklyn drops to 9-14 ATS on the road while Toronto drops to 12-15 ATS at home. Perhaps the most notable trend is that the Nets are 16-12-3 ATS in conference play while the Raptors are 15-19-1. Toronto visits Atlanta tomorrow while Brooklyn is off until Saturday.

Line movement notes: Brooklyn’s advantage has dipped by a half-point margin.

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks NBA Odds & Trends

PHX: +100 | DAL: -120
PHX +1.5: -110 | DAL -1.5: -110
Over 245.5: -110 | Under 245.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

It’s a battle of superstars. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal (questionable) versus Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic (probable). Both teams are looking to integrate their trade-deadline adds, Royce O’Neale, David Roddy and Thaddeus Young for Phoenix; P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford for Dallas.

The post-deadline Suns are a very good playoff team with enough depth to get by. The post-deadline Mavs are still lacking in the frontcourt. However, Phoenix is only 23-30-2 ATS this year, which is worse than 29-26 ATS Dallas. The Suns improve marginally to 12-13-1 ATS on the road while Dallas regresses to 13-17 ATS on the road. Phoenix has to play again tomorrow with a road trip to Houston on the schedule. Dallas is off.

Line movement notes: Dallas’ advantage has dipped by a half-point margin.

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls NBA Odds & Trends

BOS: -350 | CHI: +280
BOS -8.5 -110 | CHI +8.5: -110
Over 225.5: -115 | Under 225.5: -105
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The Boston Celtics resume play with a road game against the Chicago Bulls. The Celtics have all key pieces of their rotation available, including trade-deadline add Xavier Tillman Sr. On the other side, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams and Torrey Craig remain out. The Bulls will lean heavily on breakout guard Coby White along with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic.

The Celtics are a very good basketball team, but the sportsbooks know it. The Celtics are only 25-27-3 ATS this season, dropping to 10-13-3 ATS on the road. The Bulls are 29-25-1 ATS this year and 14-12-1 ATS at home. The Bulls are also an impressive 7-3-1 ATS as a home dog, which ties them with the Pacers for the best such record among teams to be home dogs at least five times. Both the Bulls and Celtics are off tomorrow.

Line movement notes: Boston’s advantage has grown by a full point.

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Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans NBA Odds & Trends

HOU: +225 | NOP: -275
HOU +6.5: -105 | NOP -6.5: -115
Over 229.5: -105 | Under 229.5: -115
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The Houston Rockets visit the New Orleans Pelicans in this spot. At 24-30, the Rockets have already exceeded last season’s win total (22), but they’re still not playing great basketball. Reggie Bullock (questionable) is their only injury of note. The Pelicans listed Brandon Ingram (questionable) and Dyson Daniels (out) on their injury report.

The Rockets are one of the NBA’s worst road teams. Despite being a decent 27-25-2 ATS, they plummet to 9-16-1 ATS when playing on the road. The Pelicans are a better 30-24-1 ATS this season and sit at a profitable 15-11 ATS at home. They are also 10-8 ATS as a home favorite, winning by an average margin of 7.8 points. Both teams have home games on tap tomorrow — Houston draws Phoenix, New Orleans draws the Miami Heat.

Line movement notes: The spread for this one hasn’t moved. The total has increased by three points.

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Odds & Trends

LAC: -105 | OKC: -115
LAC +1.5: -115 | OKC -1.5: -105
Over 235.5: -110 | Under 235.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder are two of the favorites to win this year’s Western Conference. With both sides healthy, this could be a fantastic window into the upcoming postseason. These squads have split the season series so far this season with both home teams winning and covering. The Thunder have the home-court advantage for this one.

The Clippers are a profitable 29-24 ATS this year. That’s dwarfed by Oklahoma City’s dominant 33-20-1 ATS record. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, the Thunder are an NBA-best 127-85-8 ATS. Covering at a near-60% clip for almost three seasons is absurd. They are a steady 15-7 ATS as a home favorite this year. The Clippers are 3-5 ATS a road dog. Both teams are also back in action again tomorrow.

Line movement notes: Oklahoma City’s advantage has tightened by a half-point margin.

Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets NBA Odds & Trends

WAS: +800 | DEN: -1400
WAS +15.5: -115 | DEN -15.5: -105
Over 231.5: -115 | Under 231.5: -105
Game Time: 9 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The books expect this game to get ugly. The Washington Wizards are relatively healthy but dealt plenty of talent at the trade deadline. The Denver Nuggets have a bunch of names on the injury report, like Jamal Murray (probable), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (probable) and Julian Strawther (probable) but are unlikely to actually be without anyone.

Denver hasn’t been good at covering this season and Washington hasn’t been much better. The Nuggets are 21-31-2 ATS, improving slightly to 12-13-1 ATS at home. Washington is 26-27-1 ATS but an impressive 18-9-1 ATS on the road. The Wizards are a plug-your-nose play tonight, but they’re not one I expect to get much action on. Both teams have road games scheduled for tomorrow.

Line movement notes: Denver’s advantage has grown by a point.

Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz NBA Odds & Trends

CHA: +350 | UTA: -450
CHA +9.5: -110 | UTA -9.5: -450
Over 229.5: -110 | Under 229.5: -110
Game Time: 9 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The Charlotte Hornets will visit the Utah Jazz tonight. Charlotte has already ruled out LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams, leaving them even more shorthanded in a post-trade deadline world. The Jazz don’t have any key rotational pieces on the injury report. Gordon Hayward, the ex-Hornet, should be available for them tonight as well, so get ready for some revenge narratives.

The Jazz are pretty good at covering, but the Hornets aren’t bad, either. Utah is a very solid 30-25-1 ATS, improving to a dominant 18-9 ATS at home. Charlotte sits at 21-33 ATS and 8-17 ATS on the road. It’s worth noting that the Hornets are also 9-11 ATS in non-conference games while Utah is 12-9 ATS.

Line movement notes: Utah’s advantage hasn’t moved off the opening number

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors NBA Odds & Trends

LAL: +190 | GSW: -250
LAL +5.5: -105 | GSW -5.5: -115
Over 242.5: -105 | Under 242.5: -115
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The Golden State Warriors have figured something out and are 8-2 SU over the last 10. The Los Angeles Lakers are also trending up and have gone 7-3 SU over that stretch. However, LeBron James is out and Anthony Davis is questionable. James joins reserves Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood on the bench. Golden State is healthy aside from Chris Paul (out) and Gary Payton II (questionable)

Both of these teams are underperforming in the win column, but one side has been better at covering than the other. The Warriors are 28-24-1 ATS while the Lakers are 27-30 ATS. The Dubs regress to 11-16-1 ATS at home but the Lakers also regress to 12-16 ATS on the road. Both sides have home games scheduled for tomorrow. The Lakers get the San Antonio Spurs; the Warriors get the Hornets.

Line movement notes: Golden State’s advantage has grown by 1.5.

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings NBA Odds & Trends

SAS: +310 | SAC: -400
SAS +9.5: -115 | SAC -9.5: -105
Over 240.5: -110 | Under 240.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10 a.m. ET

The beam should get lit tonight. The Sacramento Kings are nearly a double-digit home favorite over the San Antonio Spurs — and that’s despite the injury to Domantas Sabonis (doubtful). If Sabonis sits, the Kings have Alex Len and JaVale McGee as traditional fives, but they may opt to go small with Trey Lyles at that spot. Lyles has spent 19% of his minutes at center this season.

The Kings have been a disappointment this year relative to last, but they’re still a steady 28-25-1 ATS this season. The Spurs are a bad 25-30 ATS. Sacramento is only 11-13 ATS at home this year, however. San Antonio is a still-bad 13-16 ATS on the road. The Kings are 18-16-1 ATS in conference play while the Spurs are 14-15 ATS in conference games. San Antonio is back in action tomorrow while Sacramento is not.

Line movement notes: Sacramento’s advantage has tightened by 2.5 points.

NBA Picks: Thursday, February 22

This spot is a time to sell “high” on Charlotte. The Hornets just won three straight home games, but they haven’t won a road contest in a month.

The Hornets have played 10 road games since the start of 2024. Seven of them produced double-digit wins for the home team. The Hornets failed to crack 100 points in half of them.

In contrast, the Jazz have played 11 games since the start of 2024, winning eight of them and another five by a double-digit margin.

The Jazz took the first game between these teams by 12 in Charlotte. They are 3-0 versus Charlotte over the last two seasons. When these teams last met in Utah, the Jazz won by 18.

NBA Pick Today: UTA -9.5 -110 at BetMGM

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