Devin Booker going absolutely bonkers distributing the ball in the third quarter was the dagger to our +600 banger last night. What can we do? We’d been running so hot. In turn, obviously, we HAD to pull up like Dion Waiters for a heat-check from 35 feet. We just came up a tad short. It happens. But, we’re back and putting our money on some absolute SUPERSTARS tonight. Let’s get to our NBA parlay picks today.
Now it’s time for our top NBA parlay picks for today, Wednesday, January 17th, including an NBA player prop pick for Stephen Curry. Need more action? Check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos — including the new MEGA PROMO from BetMGM!
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NBA Parlay Picks Today: +519 Bet for Friday
Stephen Curry 25+ Points (NBA Player Prop)
I’ve gotten a LOT of comments on my video already asking “Why do you like Steph tonight?!?” Let’s break it down a little, shall we?
Steph now has his pacifier back in his life — his safety blanket if you will — in Draymond Green. You know, the guy who handles the ball A TON and allows Steph to do Steph things like run around screens, flash for 3s and cut to the basket for easy lay-ups.
It’s no coincidence that in Draymond’s first game back, Steph went for 26 against Memphis. And that was with Draymond coming off the bench, which he might do again tonight. But, we all know he’s going to get his minutes increased each game, and eventually work more with Steph, Klay Thompson and the rest of the starters.
Now, tonight the Warriors play the Jazz, and Golden State is coming off that embarrassing loss to the Grizzlies on Monday night, so there will be big incentive for Golden State go come out here and lay the pipe.
Utah is 20th in defensive rating this season, and in its last seven games has allowed 27.72 points per game to opposing point guards.
Spoiler alert: Steph ain’t your average point guard, and he can put you in a coffin in any 2-minute stretch of the game. I think we see Steph come out shooting — and hitting — in a game they desperately need to win.
Trae Young 25+ Points (NBA Player Prop)
For the second leg of our NBA parlay today, we’re going to fire up a prop on a guy who has been a little hit or miss for us, but like Billy Joel, I’m keeping the faith: Trae Young for 25+ points.
If we look at Trae’s traditional scoring prop tonight, he’s on the board for 27.5 points. If we check in with the “nerds,” AKA, the OddsShopper Prop Tool, we see that it likes Trae to go over the 27.5-point mark 53% of the time.
Now, if we do some #Math, we can see that 27.5 is more than 25+, so if the tools and data like him for over 27.5, how can we not have confidence in him getting to 25?
A little more context: In the two games Young has played against the Magic this season, he’s scored 31 and 41 points, which, by my calculations, smashes the 25+ we need tonight.
Now, do you want a big fat cherry on top of this already delicious sundae?
How about the fact that in his last 15 games against the Magic, he’s gone for 25+ points 11 times!
Clint Capela o8.5 Rebounds (NBA Player Prop)
I know, I know. We put Clint Capela on the banned list. But, everyone deserves a second chance, right?
I mean, after all, #NewYearNewUs.
I couldn’t pass this line up when I saw it, because it was just screaming “VALUE” at me — over/under 8.5 rebounds for Capela? Are you serious? We’re smashing this prop every day of the week and twice on Sunday!
This prop has a 60% expected win rate in the OddsShopper prop projections, and in the two games against the Magic this season, Capela has gone for 11 and 12 rebounds, respectively.
We have to take the value when the books give it to us, and tonight is no exception.
However, I can confirm: this is your last chance for us, Capela. Don’t sell us.
Fred VanVleet 12+ Points (NBA Player Prop)
Looking at the past few games, Fred VanVleet‘s scoring won’t get you excited. I mean, even if you combined his total points from the last two games, he BARELY goes over this 12+ points prop.
Why am I crapping on this guy if I’m betting him to score tonight? Well, because this is my column and I can do what I want.
But, on the real, those games are absolute outliers. There aren’t going to be many games where FVV has scoring outputs that low. Like, ever.
The fella is averaging 17 points per game this season, so to think he’s not going to snap back and get near that season average seems a bit silly if you ask me.
Again, the books are giving us value here on an alternate points prop, so we’re going to fire up the 12+ points for the final leg of our NBA parlay today.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Stephen Curry 25+ Points
Leg 2: Trae Young 25+ Points
Leg 3: Clint Capela o8.5 Rebounds
Leg 4: Fred VanVleet 12+ Points
= +### odds at book
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