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Categories NBA

NBA Parlay Picks: Using Game Theory to Make a Profit (March 25)

March 25, 2023 | 12:47 PM by Isaiah Sirois
Let's discuss the Lakers-Pelicans odds as we get into our advanced stats preview in hopes of finding a +EV Lakers-Pelicans pick....

Last night’s game theory parlay cashed at +110 with the Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers all scoring much-needed wins. We’ll use the same strategy for this play — since the NBA playoffs have almost arrived, not every team has the incentive to win. Making your parlay picks with teams’ big-picture goals in mind is a sharp way to make money late in the year. Here are my top NBA parlay picks for Saturday, March 25 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

Best NBA Parlay Picks | March 25

Atlanta Hawks Moneyline -460

Let’s start with the safest leg. The Atlanta Hawks will face the Indiana Pacers tonight, and the Pacers are playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back set. The Boston Celtics just cooked them for a 25-point win despite Tyrese Haliburton returning to the floor. The Pacers have since listed Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin and Myles Turner as questionable.

The Pacers have a 1% chance to make the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight, and their energy is best spent on securing the best draft pick possible. In contrast, the Hawks are currently poised for a play-in tournament bid and own a 46% chance of making the playoffs. Don’t expect the Hawks to fumble an easy win.

Sacramento Kings Moneyline -300

The Kings might not have De’Aaron Fox tonight, but they should still torch the Utah Jazz. Although the Jazz got off to a strong start this year, they rank a dismal 23rd in net rating since the All-Star Break (-3.9). In contrast, the Kings rank ninth (+3.4). With Sacramento just two games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the second seed in the Western Conference, the Kings have every reason to make a late-season push.

Utah’s injury report isn’t likely to be pretty. The Jazz just got cooked by the Milwaukee Bucks last night in a game that Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen all missed. Don’t expect Utah to thrust its big-name players back into the lineup — the Jazz have only a 4% chance of making this year’s playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans +10.5 -255

We’re not targeting the New Orleans Pelicans on the moneyline because they could lose this one to the Los Angeles Clippers. The books expect that outcome — the Pelicans are a 5.5-point road underdog. However, with the Pelicans currently just a half-game to the good for the play-in tournament, they’ll have to play this one like their life depends on it.

The Pelicans and Clippers are pretty evenly matched. Los Angeles ranks 13th in net rating since the All-Star Break (+1.4), slightly ahead of 16th-ranked New Orleans (+0.5). However, losing Paul George to an injury is bad news. The Clippers are 7.3 points better with George on the floor than with him off it. With him sidelined, expect the Pelicans to keep this one close — and to possibly pull off the upset.

Final NBA Parlay Picks for March 25

Hawks  ML & Kings ML & Pelicans +10.5: +125 for 0.5 Unit at FanDuel

With a price of +125, this parlay has implied odds of 44.4%. This should hit at least half the time. Two of the teams on the losing side of our moneyline legs have no reason to win — and, frankly, every reason to lose because of the NBA draft lottery. While both the Pelicans and Clippers are looking to win, the books are a bit too keen on the home team tonight.

We’re placing this NBA parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can register using this link to score $200 in bonus bets after you place a $20 wager! That’s a great way to build your bankroll, especially in advance of the NBA playoffs.

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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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