It is another star-filled slate of top NBA player props on No House Advantage; unfortunately, NBA Bet Pro is liking the unders today despite the pedigree. Two of the game’s most productive players in Trae Young and Jayson Tatum are earning win rates approaching 70%, so make sure to lock them in before anything changes. And as always, you can guarantee the best value on all of your No House Advantage NBA player props by signing up with NBA Bet Pro. New users can get a seven-day free trial!
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
Jayson Tatum Under 9.0 Rebounds
Regular readers here know the value that comes with taking unders when No House Advantage pushes a line a half point up (or sometimes more) from the industry consensus. That is happening with both picks today, and it provides bettors with a little extra cushion on these unders since NBA Bet Pro was projecting under on the sportsbook lines without the extra half point.
Tatum is having the best rebounding season of his career (8.5 per game) and has connected on this over in five straight games. However, he is taking on a Magic team that is a slight pace down for Boston and that is allowing the ninth-fewest rebounds per game. And though the Celtics are down a few players, the guys sitting are guards — all of Boston’s key frontcourt players are projecting for 25-plus minutes.
Stokastic is projecting Tatum for 7.9 rebounds in this one for a 69% win expectancy, the second-highest win rate on Monday’s No House Advantage slate.
Trae Young Under 11.0 Assists
This is the No. 1 play on the board, with Young’s under projecting to hit 74% of the time. Stokastic tabbing Young for only 9.3 assists — lower than his season average of 9.8 — is a bit counterintuitive since the Bulls allow the second-m0st assists per game, though they have been slightly better lately (20th over their last five as opposed to 29th on the season). But even if the matchup with Chicago were to help Young get to, or even slightly above, his season mark, this line would still be too high. Eleven assists is a lot — a number Young has hit only 15 times in 42 games, two of which were pushes. So he has only a 31% over rate on 11 assists in 2022-23.
He is 1-for-2 on this over against Chicago this year, recording 14 in one game and six in the other. Both games came in December. He has also finished with double-digit assists only five times in his last 12 games, one of which was still an under of 10 assists and another a push at 11. So even though Young is capable of putting up solid numbers here, 12 assists for an over is simply too lofty. NBA Bet Pro projects him for only 9.3 tonight.
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