The early NBA slate is limiting options today, and this article is going to skip the Knicks-Pistons game due to its 1 p.m. ET tip. The rest of the games are in play, however, including the two games that begin between 3 and 4 p.m., and NBA Bet Pro has actually diagnosed a good number of props as high-ROI plays. Let’s do some quick-hitters for the best NBA player props on Sunday.
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Best NBA Player Props | Jan. 15
Wendell Carter Jr. Under 0.5 Steals (-130, DraftKings)
This is by a decent margin the No. 1 play on the board (excluding the Knicks-Pistons matchup). Carter has been considerably worse than a 50-50 proposition to record a steal the whole season, hitting this over in just eight of 24 games (33.3%) and only has one game with a steal in his last eight tries. The Nuggets are a relatively high-turnover team, but Stokastic is only projecting Carter for 0.3 steals in this one. This gives the under a 61% expected win rate.
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Ben Simmons Under 8.5 Assists (-135, PointsBet)
Kevin Durant being out means a lot of things for the other Nets, not the least of which is more minutes for the other frontcourt players like Simmons. Unfortunately, it also means Simmons is missing one of the league’s best finishers to help him get easy assists. Even with Durant, Simmons has consistently fallen short of this mark, averaging only 6.2 in 27 minutes a game and hitting this over just six times in 31 games. And Simmons is not projecting for so much more playing time and usage that they are going to offset losing such a safe bucket.
Stokastic projects Simmons for only 7.1 assists and a 62% expected win rate on the under.
Stephen Curry Under 6.5 Assists (-125, Unibet)
This game tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET, so keep that in mind when making wagers this afternoon.
Curry is a perennial 6.5-assist guy, averaging exactly that this season and for his career. But this Chicago Bulls team is slow as molasses compared to the Warriors, who rank No. 1 in pace for the year (Bulls are 14th). That alone nukes Curry’s typical assist numbers a bit, but Curry’s assist numbers have also been down since returning from injury. He had three assists in each of the two games while Jordan Poole did more of the playmaking (six assists in each). Eventually that will even out, but with this pace down, look for the under here with Curry.
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Josh Giddey Over 8.5 Rebounds (+107, Unibet)
Giddey is perhaps the best rebounding guard there is now — granted, he is a 6-foot-8 guard, but a guard, nonetheless. The only player with more than his 8.0 per game is (surprise) Luka Doncic.
Now, 8.0 is still below this line, and Giddey has gotten to nine rebounds in just a hair under 50% of his games (18 of 38). But two of those came in his last three games, and with Brooklyn down Durant, there is a bit less size among perimeter players in that lineup to challenge Giddey for rebounds. Stokastic projects him for 9.5 rebounds in this matchup and a 52% chance of hitting the over.
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