The NBA playoffs are just days away. But before we get the playoffs, we’ll get the play-in tournament, and before that, we’ll get a handful of games that may actually prove consequential. Although most teams have nearly locked up their positioning for this year’s playoffs, the NBA playoff seeding probabilities reveal that some uncertainty remains. Here are the probabilities of each outcome, per Basketball-Reference.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
NBA Playoff Seeding Probabilities & Predictions: Eastern Conference
The listed probabilities are for a team to retain its current seeding.
No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks (58-23): 100%
No. 2 Boston Celtics (56-25): 100%
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers (53-28): 100%
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (51-30): 100%
No. 5 New York Knicks (47-34): 100%
No. 6 Brooklyn Nets (45-36): 100%
No. 7 Miami Heat (43-38): 100%
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks (41-40): 100%
No. 9 Toronto Raptors (40-41): 100%
No. 10 Chicago Bulls (38-42): 100%
NBA Playoff Seeding Probabilities & Predictions: Western Conference
No. 1 Denver Nuggets (52-28): 100%
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (51-30): 100%
No. 3 Sacramento Kings (48-33): 100%
No. 4 Phoenix Suns (45-35): 100%
No. 5 Golden State Warriors (43-38): 45.1%
Best-case scenario: No. 5 (45.1%)
Worst-case scenario: No. 8 (9.6%)
The Golden State Warriors have the best shot at finishing fifth in the Western Conference at 45.1%. To do so, they’ll need to beat the Portland Trail Blazers tomorrow while hoping the Los Angeles Clippers lose to either the Trail Blazers or the Phoenix Suns.
The Warriors don’t own the tiebreaker against the Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans or Los Angeles Lakers. The Clippers and Warriors would be tied if they both win out, but the Pelicans and Lakers would need the Warriors to lose on Sunday to achieve a tie.
No. 6 Los Angeles Clippers (42-38): 36.5%
Best-case scenario: No. 5 (36.5%)
Worst-case scenario: No. 9 (4.5%)
The Clippers are likeliest to finish either fifth (36.5%) or seventh (28.3%). If they win their final two games, they’ll finish fifth. The Clippers have the tiebreaker over the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers but not the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns, two teams with nothing left to gain, are all that remain on the Clippers’ schedule.
No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (42-39): 41.3%
Best-case scenario: No. 5 (5%)
Worst-case scenario: No. 9 (9%)
At 41-39, the Lakers rank seventh in the Western Conference. They are a half-game behind the Clippers and a full game behind the Warriors. They are also tied with the Pelicans, against whom they own the tiebreaker. The Lakers can improve to fifth in the Western Conference if they win out while the Clippers and Warriors both lose out. The Lakers can also improve to sixth if they finish with the same record as the Warriors because they own the tiebreaker.
The Lakers wrap up their season with games against the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. The Jazz have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, so neither team will have anything to gain.
No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans (42-39): 32.4%
Best-case scenario: No. 6 (13.3%)
Worst-case scenario: No. 9 (13.5%)
The New Orleans Pelicans still have a shot to score the fifth seed in the Western Conference despite the absence of Zion Williamson. To do so, they’ll need to win out and get some help. They own the tiebreakers over both the Clippers and Warriors, so they need only finish with the same record as those teams.
The Pelicans wrap up their season with a meaningful game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. If the Timberwolves win on Saturday, they’ll have a chance to tie the Pelicans on Sunday with a win. The winner of that game would control the tiebreaker between the two teams.
No. 9 Minnesota Timberwolves (40-40): 73.1%
Best-case scenario: No. 6 (1.4%)
Worst-case scenario: No. 9 (73.1%)
The Minnesota Timberwolves will probably end up hosting a play-in tournament game this year. They could fight their way up to eighth, but to do so, they’d need to win out. Other teams losing could help them improve a bit further.
Minnesota’s final regular-season contest against New Orleans will likely end up determining which of the two teams finishes eighth and ninth. However, the Timberwolves will have to beat the San Antonio Spurs first.
No. 10 Oklahoma City Thunder (39-43): 100%
