With the big dance dominating the basketball airwaves, bettors can lose sight of the high-value options that remain on the table in the NBA. Today’s slate provides bettors with a whopping eight games to dig into. Value abounds. Bettors hunting out NBA bets, especially Timberwolves-Bulls and Pelicans-Rockets player props, should tail the predictions below. FanDuel and DraftKings have left too much value on the Jaden McDaniels and Jonas Valanciunas player prop markets, respectively. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Timberwolves-Bulls NBA Player Prop | Jaden McDaniels
Jaden McDaniels O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
In their efforts to shut down opposing offenses in the paint, the Chicago Bulls have started to let their opponents get whatever they want from beyond the arc. Through the last seven games, the Bulls have allowed the most above-the-break 3’s (12) and the fourth-most corner 3’s (4.3) per game.
Wings have accounted for most of that damage. The Bulls have allowed the fourth-most 3-pointers per game to shooting guards (4.2) and the second-most to small forwards (4.1) through that span. Sacramento’s starting wings, Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter, combined to go 6-for-14 from the field against them on Wednesday. Malik Monk went 5-for-8 from off the bench.
Enter Jaden McDaniels. The talented wing leads the Timberwolves in corner 3’s made (1) and attempted (2.3) per game over the last seven. He also ranks a respectable sixth in above-the-break 3’s attempted per game (1.6) through that span. He is averaging 1.3 3-pointers per game on the season. That number ticks up slightly to 1.4 in games without Karl-Anthony Towns.
The total for this prop (1.5) is fair, but the odds should be much closer to even. DraftKings has the over priced at +110 while Pinnacle, a sharp book, has that number at +106. FanDuel Sportsbook has the over set to +128, but switching to the 2-plus made 3’s market gets you a bit of extra value at +130. Bettors are getting a steal of a deal via FanDuel, and readers yet to register there can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $20 wager!
Best Timberwolves-Bulls Player Prop: Jaden McDaniels 2+ 3-Pointers (+130 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel
Best Pelicans-Rockets NBA Player Prop | Jonas Valanciunas
Jonas Valanciunas O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
The New Orleans Pelicans haven’t featured their big-name center, Jonas Valanciunas, in an especially large role this year. Valanciunas is averaging only 24.4 minutes and 14 points per game this season. He has taken 1.5 3-pointers per game, 34.4% of which (0.5) have gone in. Worse, the Pels have often limited his minutes of late — Val is averaging only 22.1 minutes per game since the All-Star Break.
Tonight’s matchup with the Houston Rockets is a great get-right spot for Valanciunas. Unlike some of New Orleans’ recent opponents, the Rockets aren’t making a push for the play-in tournament or to improve their playoff seeding. The Rockets rank 29th in defensive rating on the year (118) and their perimeter defense has struggled all season.
Houston has allowed the most 3-pointers per game this year (14.6). Much of the damage has come from above the break — they have allowed the most made shots from that part of the floor per game on the season (11.3) and the fourth-most through the last seven games (11.4). Sharpshooting centers have been an issue lately, as Houston has allowed the fourth-most 3-pointers per game to the position through the last seven (1.4).
While Val’s recent workload and volume are concerning, he should cash this prop tonight. He ranks a steady seventh in above-the-break 3’s attempted per game (1.4) for New Orleans this year. He took a pair of 3-pointers in his last game and is averaging 0.4 long-range makes on 0.8 attempts since returning from a brief absence. Valanciunas is also 1-for-3 from long range over two games against the Rockets this year, so with the odds for this player prop set all the way up at +190 on DraftKings Sportsbook, it has plenty of +EV.
Best Pelicans-Rockets Player Prop: Jonas Valanciunas Over 0.5 3-Pointers (+190 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
