The Memphis Grizzlies have lost point guard Ja Morant for an unclear amount of time as the league probes his conduct. That means Tyus Jones will take over at point guard for the time being, and he has routinely cashed this play for bettors when Morant sits. Bettors searching looking for strong NBA player props for Tuesday’s Grizzlies-Lakers game should tail the prediction below — BetMGM has left far too much value on the Tyus Jones player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Grizzlies-Lakers NBA Player Prop | Tyus Jones
Tyus Jones O/U 1.5 Steals
Plenty of sharp bettors want to get action on Tyus Jones tonight — the question is primarily which of his markets to target. While action has come in on almost all of them, leading books to adjust their numbers accordingly, BetMGM has failed to adjust the price on this prop relative to what their competitors have done — you won’t find the over priced in the plus money anywhere else. But before we dive into how oddly the books have responded to sharp action, let’s get into why this bet makes sense.
Jones has often had to play the point without Morant. He has made 48 total career appearances without the star point guard dating back to the 2019-20 season. That massive sample includes 10 games this season and five in 2023. When Morant sits, Jones is averaging 2.7 steals per game and has cashed the over in his last seven. He racked up five steals in his last game without Morant on Sunday. Jones has gone over this number in 23 of his 48 career games without Morant (48%).
The Los Angeles Lakers aren’t the most efficient basketball team, especially without LeBron James. They have allowed the 10th-most steals per game (7.6) and the 11th-most to point guards (1.8) on the year. That number ticks up slightly when looking at only the last seven games (1.9). Minnesota’s backup point guard, Jordan McLaughlin, swiped two balls in 17 minutes against them last Friday. Morant and Jones both swiped two balls apiece against them last Tuesday, and Jones needed only 14 minutes to get his.
The number on this prop has moved in a weird manner. Both Caesars and DraftKings adjusted the over for Jones’ steals to have the same exact juice as his blocks and steals prop: -110 or worse. While Jones averages only 0.1 blocks per game, the adjustment of that market but not the other suggests this prop has been bid down to its floor. Fortunately, that isn’t the case at every book. Bettors can still buy the over at +105 via BetMGM, and readers who have yet to register there can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance!
Best Grizzlies-Lakers Player Prop: Tyus Jones Over 1.5 Steals (+105) at BetMGM
