The Los Angeles Clippers have not played the safest brand of basketball this year. With a ball-dominant point guard, Russell Westbrook, now in town the turnovers could get even worse. This NBA player prop has had value for almost all of their opponents, and those looking for a Knicks-Clippers player prop should tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left too much value on the Julius Randle player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Knicks-Clippers NBA Player Prop | Julius Randle
Julius Randle O/U 0.5 Steals
The Los Angeles Clippers have struggled to retain control of the basketball. That’s led opposing teams to rack up monster numbers in the steal column. The Clippers have allowed the fourth-most steals per game this year (7.9) and the third-most through the last three games (9.3). Worse, they even allow 0.9 more steals when they play at home, where they’ll play this one.
L.A.’s steal struggles extend to just about every position, but two jump out. They have allowed the third-most steals per game to point guards (2.2) and the seventh-most to power forwards (1.4). Through the last seven games, they have allowed the most steals per game to point guards (3.5) and the second-most to power forwards (1.8). With Jalen Brunson out, that leaves Julius Randle or Immanuel Quickley as the player to target tonight.
Unfortunately, the books know that Quickley should get a steal, and the price for the over on that market comes in at a whopping -230. The same can’t be said for Randle, whose over on this market sits at only -105. Randle isn’t the most dangerous defender, but he plays a massive role in Tom Thibodeau’s rotation and should see plenty of minutes. He recorded one steal in New York’s home game against L.A.
The Clippers’ struggles to hold onto possession make it likelier than not that Randle gets a steal. Yet the books have stacked the juice on the under, and the -105 available at DraftKings Sportsbook is only slightly worse than a coin toss. Bettors can score some +EV on this play all the way down to -120. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Knicks-Clippers Player Prop: Julius Randle Over 0.5 Steals (-105 for 0.75 Unit) at DraftKings
