At the time this article goes live, only a few Round of 64 games remain. It’s time to start thinking about the Round of 32. One top-seeded team, the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks, opened with a 3-point advantage over the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks. The Kansas-Arkansas odds point to his bet as a +ROI wager at Caesars. For more Kansas-Arkansas predictions and March Madness bets, check out OddsShopper’s tools.
Kansas-Arkansas Odds & Best Bet | March Madness
Kansas (-3) vs. Arkansas
The market believes that Saturday’s Kansas-Arkansas matchup should be close. However, the narrow spread underrates how strong the defending champion Kansas Jayhawks — and the Big 12 — are this year. The Jayhawks lost to a single non-conference opponent, the SEC’s Tennessee Volunteers, this season. Arkansas went 1-1 against Big 12 teams with a win over Oklahoma and a loss to Baylor. Notably, Arkansas lost to Tennessee by 18 in late February.
Arkansas scored an assertive win over the Illinois Fighting Illini in the opening round, but the market is overreacting to their strong showing. The Razorbacks benefited from a number of extra possessions because of turnovers forced and offensive rebounds, but the Jayhawks are unlikely to give them those extra chances. Even if Kansas does slip up, the Jayhawks can make up for their mistakes by scoring more points — they rank 148th in 3-point shooting percentage (34.6%), far ahead of 305th-ranked Arkansas (31.6%).
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Kansas may not cover at the highest rate, but the Jayhawks find a way to win when they are supposed to. Kansas is a dominant 128-17 (88.3%) straight-up when favored by the betting market since the 2018-19 season. Only the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a higher winning percentage when favored (91.9%). Arkansas is a respectable 14-32 (30.4%) when listed as an underdog through that span. The Razorbacks have gone 11-19 straight up against ranked opponents since then as well.
Arkansas could pull off the upset, but the odds of them doing so are worse than what the market would have you believe. Although I think there’s value on both the spread and the moneyline for this game, I recommend concentrating your action on Kansas to cover. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has Kansas as a 3.5-point favorite. Fortunately, you can still buy Kansas as a 3-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook for -110. Let’s lock in that play before it disappears. Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!
March Madness Kansas-Arkansas Prediction & Bet: Kansas -3 (-110 for 0.52 Unit) at Caesars