March Madness is one of the biggest betting opportunities of the year, but most casual bettors fail to take advantage of the tournament’s unique market inefficiencies. If you want to bet smarter and maximize your edge, you need to analyze March Madness betting trends, market movements and sportsbook biases. With the help of Portfolio EV, you can turn these insights into profitable, +EV bets — and in this guide, we’ll break down the most actionable March Madness betting trends and how to bet on college basketball.
How to Bet March Madness Betting Trends: Bet on CBB
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Betting Underdogs: Why the Public Overvalues Favorites
Casual bettors love big-name programs, which means favorites are often overpriced, especially in early rounds. The public overestimates seeding differences, creating value on lower-seeded teams that are better than people realize.
Double-digit underdogs in the Round of 64 have covered the spread 51.1% of the time, with a 7.5% straight-up win rate.
How to Bet It with Portfolio EV
- Use Portfolio EV to find the best number for an underdog before the market adjusts.
- Identify games where public money is inflating the favorite’s line and bet early before the odds shift.
- Target underdogs with elite 3-point shooting — teams that shoot well from deep are more likely to pull off upsets.
Fading the Public: Spotting Overreactions
During March Madness, public perception moves lines more than in any other event. Bettors react strongly to blowouts, buzzer-beaters and stars, but those moments don’t always translate to future success.
Key Trend: Teams that win by 20-plus points in the previous round cover the spread just 47% of the time in their next game.
How to Bet It with Portfolio EV
- Track line movements and spot overreactions with Portfolio EV in real time.
- Bet against teams coming off dominant wins, especially if their opponent has strong defensive efficiency.
- Look for inflated spreads on public darlings and take advantage of contrarian opportunities.
Line Movement: Timing Your Bets for Maximum Value
Betting too early or too late can cost you valuable points on the spread. The biggest edges come when you beat the market to a number before the sportsbooks adjust.
Key Trend: Lines that move 2 points or more from the opening number cover at a 54% rate when you bet at the optimal time.
How to Bet It with Portfolio EV
- Monitor early line movement — if sharp money is hitting a number, bet before the odds adjust.
- If a line moves heavily in one direction, don’t chase it — instead, use Portfolio EV to find an alternative market with value.
- Portfolio EV tracks historical ROI for different bet types, helping you decide if a line is still worth betting after a shift.
The Importance of Bankroll Management in a Chaotic Tournament
March Madness is a high-variance event, meaning bankroll discipline is crucial. Betting too aggressively early on can wipe you out before the Sweet 16.
Key Trend: Flat betting (wagering the same amount per bet) outperforms aggressive betting strategies in March Madness 65% of the time.
How to Bet It with Portfolio EV
- Use Portfolio EV’s staking recommendations to size your bets correctly based on edge and probability.
- Stick to a flat-betting approach instead of chasing losses or overbetting early.
- Portfolio EV helps you balance risk and reward, ensuring you’re profitable over the long term instead of just trying to hit one big win.
Final Thoughts: How Portfolio EV Gives You a March Madness Edge
The NCAA Tournament is a goldmine for +EV bettors, but only if you know how to spot market inefficiencies and bet smart. If you’re serious about winning this March Madness, don’t bet blind. Use Portfolio EV to gain an edge over the books and make smarter bets.
