There are many ways to go about filling out your 2024 men’s NCAA Tournament bracket. Are you choosing chaos and picking as many upsets as possible? Are you playing it safe and riding out the favorites till the end? Perhaps you’ve broken down each team’s strengths and weaknesses and are grinding the tape on every 7-10 matchup.
Savvy players know that leveraging betting odds can provide a significant edge in winning bracket pools. As much as it matters to actually pick the winners (duh), winning NCAA Tournament bracket challenges also comes down to math and leverage.
In this guide, we’ll delve into how you can use betting odds to optimize your bracket strategy and increase your chances of coming out on top in your NCAA Tournament bracket pool.
How To Win NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool
EV Pool Picks
Let’s explore Expected Value (EV) pool picks, which are selections that offer the best potential value based on implied win probabilities compared to popular picks in bracket pools.
Despite being chosen to win it all by 30 percent of brackets at CBS, UConn’s implied win percentage stands at just 22 percent, suggesting they may be overvalued. Similarly, with only 9 percent of brackets backing them, North Carolina’s implied win odds are even lower at 6 percent.
However, going for more contrarian plays will set you apart and increase your chances of winning.
With only 2 percent of brackets picking them but a 6 percent implied win probability, Auburn presents a notable value opportunity. Arizona’s 4% bracket popularity contrasts with a 7.5% implied win probability, making them a promising +EV pick.
While not as pronounced, these teams still offer modest value compared to their bracket popularity: Houston, Tennessee, Creighton, Illinois, Duke, Kansas, Baylor, Alabama. Each of these teams has a slightly higher implied win probability than their bracket selections suggest, albeit to varying degrees.
First Round Upsets
Identifying potential first-round upsets can provide a crucial edge in bracket pools. Here are some matchups where the odds favor the underdog:
Best 15 over 2: Western Kentucky over Marquette, with a 10% implied upset probability compared to 5% bracket popularity.
Best 14 over 3: Morehead State over Illinois, with a near 15% implied upset probability.
Best 13 over 4: Samford over Kansas, where injury concerns for Kansas create uncertainty despite strong bracket support.
In navigating the unpredictability of NCAA Tournament brackets, leveraging betting odds can be a powerful tool for maximizing your chances of success. By identifying +EV picks, spotting potential upsets, and considering the disparity between implied win probabilities and bracket selections, you can craft a strategic bracket that gives you an edge over the competition. So, as you fill out your bracket this year, remember to factor in the numbers alongside your intuition.
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