It’s time to continue our March Madness picks series by looking at our Sweet 16 best bets. Let’s not bury the lede and get right to it.
March Madness resumes on Thursday with four enticing Sweet 16 games featuring some of the country’s biggest programs. In this article, I’ll cover my two best bets from the Thursday slate, including Alabama vs. North Carolina and Illinois vs. Iowa State.
Sweet 16 Best Bets & March Madness Picks for Thursday
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
When the NCAA Tournament draw was announced, everyone penciled in North Carolina as the consensus worst No. 1 seed. While that’s a fair assessment, I believe the Tar Heels are undervalued and are in a smash spot against an Alabama team that I can’t wait to fade in this game.
Alabama’s offense is undoubtedly elite, ranking fourth in adjusted efficiency. Nate Oats has been one of the pioneers of the rim-and-three movement, but they’re facing a North Carolina here that’s elite in defending the rim-and-three. The Tar Heels allow catch-and-shoot jumpers at a third-percentile rate per Synergy while ranking fourth in the country in near-proximity FG% allowed per Haslametrics.
North Carolina also possesses an elite transition defense, which is crucial in this game. The Crimson Tide is in the 84th percentile in transition frequency, but the Tar Heels allow the fewest fast-break points per game in the country. That means the Tide will be forced to create nearly all of its offense in the half-court against an outstanding rim-and-three defense, which spells trouble.
Meanwhile, North Carolina should have plenty of matchup advantages on offense. Alabama runs a drop coverage defense but struggles to defend the rim with its undersized lineup. Armando Bacot should eat in the paint against their poor interior defense, while R.J. Davis can cook their highly suspect ball-screen defense. Davis is averaging 21.3 points per game this season, the 11th-most in the country.
The status of Alabama guard Latrell Wrightsell will be crucial to monitor in this game. According to Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating, he’s the team’s third-best player. He’s also sixth in the country in offensive rating according to KenPom, and the 44.3% 3-point shooter would be sorely missed in a game where the Tide’s only real path to a win is through a blistering performance from long range.
Alabama barely survived against Grand Canyon in the last round, needing a late 17-3 run to pull away from KenPom’s 50th-ranked team despite the Antelopes shooting 32.1% from the field and 62.2% from the free throw line. Meanwhile, North Carolina bludgeoned Michigan State, KenPom’s 16th-ranked team, for 40 minutes, making everyone look silly for believing in the “March Tom Izzo” narratives.
Hubert Davis is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach, making him just the third coach since seeding began in 1979 to start his career 8-0 ATS or better. He’s also 18-8 ATS with 5+ days of rest in his career. I believe North Carolina has far more paths to a win here and I trust Davis to make it happen in a decisive fashion.
Sweet 16 Best Bets: North Carolina -4.5 (play to -5)
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
We get an exciting matchup here in the Sweet 16 between Iowa State, the top defense in the country by adjusted efficiency, and Illinois, the top offense in the country by adjusted efficiency. Iowa State has the best ball-screen blitzing defense in the country, but the best way to beat the aggressive ball-screen blitz is simply by not screening at all – Illinois ranks top 30 in isolation frequency and efficiency.
Terrence Shannon Jr. is the lynchpin of Illinois’ five-out iso ball offense, and in five postseason games this year, he’s averaging nearly 32 points per game. He’s joined by Marcus Domask, a point forward who has 7+ assists in four straight games. Domask’s passing out of the post will be crucial in this game, as I expect to see frequent double-teams by one of the best rim-denial defenses in the country.
We should also see Dain Dainja continue to be a major X-factor for the Illini. He’s the team’s best defender, according to EvanMiya, and the team has gone 9-1 in their ten games since boosting his minutes load to around 15 per game. Dainja is also a monstrous offensive rebounder, collecting eight so far in the tournament, and Iowa State ranks just 196th in defensive rebounding.
I also believe it’s fair to say we’re overdue for some shooting regression with the Iowa State defense. The Cyclones allow 8.8 unguarded 3-point jump shots per game as a result of their aggressive defense, but opponents are shooting just 24.5% from 3 over the last month, which ranks 8th in that span. Before that stretch, they allowed 33.3% from 3, ranking 145th. Don’t be surprised if this becomes a big game for Luke Goode, who shoots 39.6% from 3 off the bench for Illinois.
Iowa State’s offense ranks just 87th in adjusted efficiency over the past month, and I don’t trust them to keep pace if this becomes a half-court scoring battle. The key for the Cyclones will be forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. They rank in the 91st percentile in efficiency compared to the Illini, who rank in the 17th percentile defensively. However, they simply lack elite shot creators in the half-court, which is why they rank in the 66th percentile per Synergy.
I’m intrigued to see if Brad Underwood implements any pressing in this game. Illinois has only pressed on 26 possessions all season. Still, the Cyclones grade out below average against the press, and forcing turnovers could help the Illini get easier shot opportunities on the other end.
Iowa State has had a tremendous season to get to this point after being unranked in the preseason AP Top 25. However, history doesn’t favor overachievers like the Cyclones. Of the 36 top-two seeds who started the season unranked in the AP Poll but finished in the top ten, no one made the Final Four. Ultimately, we’ll see Iowa State’s lack of truly elite talent become an issue in these later rounds of the tournament.
Sweet 16 Best Bets: Illinois +1.5 (play to PK)
