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Alabama vs. Arkansas Odds, Best Bet & Prediction: Razorbacks Are a Strong Buy-Low Play (October 1)

The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide will travel to take on the No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks in what could be the top game of the weekend.

The Crimson Tide enter this battle with a perfect 4-0 record and 3 wins by 50 points or more, taking down Utah State 55-0, UL-Monroe 63-7 and Vanderbilt 55-3. While everyone expected that they would win those games, the way in which they did so was certainly impressive.

Alabama’s last contest might have been the game of the year so far in college football. The Crimson Tide took on Texas at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin with QB Bryce Young‘s game-winning drive ending Texas’ upset aspirations.

As for the Razorbacks, they’re coming into this one following their first defeat of the season at the hands of No. 17 Texas A&M. Arkansas kicked off its season with a 31-24 win over the Cincinnati Bearcats, a team that made the College Football Playoffs last season. They then beat South Carolina 44-30 and Missouri State 38-27.

The Razorback’s game with Texas A&M showcased some of their flaws. Nevertheless, their star QB K.J. Jefferson still totaled 171 yards through the air with 2 touchdowns and added another 105 rushing yards and a score on the ground. He was responsible for all 3 Razorback scores.

That aside, the Razorbacks will still be heavy underdogs despite taking on Alabama at home. Kickoff from Razorback Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, October 1st.

 

Alabama vs. Arkansas Predictions and Week 5 Picks

Can Arkansas Give K.J. Jefferson Enough Time To Create Chaos?

The Crimson Tide potentially have two of the top 3 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft on their roster. One of them has been an absolute force on the defensive side of the ball. DE Will Anderson Jr. is explosive and will make his presence felt on Jefferson.

What Alabama hasn’t seen is a player that can do what Jefferson can. He’s 6-foot-3 and can run freely. On top of that, he has complete command of the offense. He has already thrown for nearly 1,000 yards through 4 games and also ran for 274. Jefferson is responsible for 12 touchdowns through the team’s first four games. In his second year as a full-time starter, Jefferson is the X-factor in this battle.

The 4-0 Crimson Tide defense is elite and will have something to say about that though. Anderson Jr. has led the team with 7.5 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks. They have 12 sacks through 4 games and 20-plus tackles for a loss.

The Crimson defense is a unit that acts as one and doesn’t have a new face, as there isn’t a single graduate transfer or freshman in the starting lineup. They’ve held UL-Monroe, Vanderbilt and Utah State to under 10 points. Even though none of those teams were ranked that stout defensive is still impressive. Texas put up 19 against the Tide but did so with 4 made field goals and just one touchdown.

Jefferson is a talented player, but getting to the next level against a Crimson Tide defensive this talented will be easier said than done. QB Quinn Ewers was the best player Alabama has faced, and he put in a good showing against the Crimson Tide. Jefferson is difficult to tackle and should be able to have a similar level of success. He’s the main factor in the Arkansas attack, much like Ewers was for Texas.

 

The Crimson Tide Must Put It All Together

The Crimson Tide have done what has been expected of them. Anderson and Young have played the part, except in one tough battle on the road. There’s not much reason to expect an Alabama blowout here. You have to discount their 3 games against non-competitive opponents, giving the second-best team in the nation some props for beating quality teams that badly.

In their matchup with Texas, the Crimson Tide couldn’t stop Ewers and backup QB Hudson Card. The Longhorns moved the ball with ease, throwing for almost 300 yards combined on 23-34 attempts. Texas had 9 more first downs than Alabama and punted fewer times. Alabama was punished by Texas’ physicality, having 100 penalty yards.

The Crimson Tide haven’t proven that they can blow out a competitive team, while Arkansas, has a quality win over Cincinnati which has NFL-level linebackers. The Razorbacks also had a game against Texas A&M in which it dominated in almost every phase of the game. The Crimson Tide will have to put it all together not only to win this one, but certainly to cover. Despite Alabama’s talent, it hasn’t proven it can do that yet.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Prediction

While it’s a very small sample size, the Crimson Tide are 0-1 against the spread (ATS) in games in which the spread was under 25. They were 20-point favorites against Texas and came up drastically short, winning by just 1. That was on the road and mimics this type of game.

Alabama played 7 top-25 sides last season, beating then-No. 21 Arkansas by 7 at home. They would’ve 4-3 ATS if the spread was 17. It would’ve been 2-2 ATS at that spread against teams between 10-25 (discounting what should’ve been more difficult matchups).

Arkansas is 2-2 ATS and has a dominant quarterback which is the style of play Alabama has shown to struggle against. Take the points with the heavy road underdog.

Best NCAAF Bet: Arkansas +17.5 (-110) at FanDuel | Playable to +17.0 (-110)

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