The start of the 2022 college football season is right around the corner. Identifying long shot value comes through two ways of discovery, both working together in finding the best number that also makes the most sense. Unfortunately for most teams vying for a shot in the playoffs, it appears that three of the four slots are already accounted for — at least through preseason rankings and chatter. While these teams get a leg up with their current rankings, upsets happen and doors open. Now it’s about which teams stand the best chance of making it through that doorway. Let’s look at two strong candidates (and my two best college football bets) as the top long shot picks to win the 2022 College Football National Championship.
College Football Long Shot Championship Bets
2022 Long Shot Champion Pick: Oklahoma (+5000)
Long shots aren’t always defined in the 50-1 range, but not many sports have such tight windows to make the postseason. Beyond Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State is an opportunity for someone to take hold of that fourth spot. The odds will favor Clemson coming out of the ACC, but looking at the Big 12 and the Sooners’ schedule, this becomes a value buy. Ranked ninth in the first AP Top 25 Poll, the Sooners see no team ahead of them in conference and have been put one spot ahead of last year’s Big 12 winner in Baylor.
The Sooners have only two opponents that are currently ranked — Baylor and Oklahoma State — and don’t have any true test (bypassing any Nebraska threat) until week six of the season. With new coach Brent Venables and a quarterback with a strong arm and plenty of targets around him, the expectation is the offense will look much smoother than how it ended last season. Playing the weaker schedule, combined with the upgraded downfield attack, Oklahoma has as good a chance as any non-Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State school to make the playoffs.
The last thing to highlight from a schedule standpoint is how the easy start works in Oklahoma’s favor, especially if any school above them in the rankings gets knocked out. Oklahoma could easily move up two to four spots in the rankings before the Red River Showdown halfway through the season.
Best Outright Winner: Oklahoma (+5000 BetMGM)
2022 Long Shot Champion Pick: North Carolina State (+15000)
With the majority of the betting public focused on Clemson atop the ACC, another team stands out with a decent chance to win the conference and bid for a playoff spot. The 150-1 odds for North Carolina State just don’t make much sense, and pending a colossal setback, it should be in prime position to take down Clemson on the road to start October. That’s the one game for North Carolina State, and if they win it, their odds will drastically shrink and a playoff opportunity will become real.
North Carolina State open as the 13th-ranked team in this year’s AP Poll after finishing 9-3 last year. They lost two of those games by less than a combined touchdown and have the recent feel of beating Clemson in their last meeting. The Wolfpack also return a boatload of starters — 17 to be exact — including quarterback Devin Leary. The only major loss was tackle Ikem Ekwonu to the NFL. The running back position was weakened with some key losses, but Leary and Dave Doren have experience on their side in working around that, especially with a revamped passing game. These odds are simply way too juicy to pass on for a team that could win their conference.
Best Outright Winner: North Carolina State (+15000 BetRivers)
