We’ve got a good old fashioned rivalry on our hands Saturday afternoon as the Iowa Hawkeyes do battle with the Iowa State Cyclones in the annual Cy-Hawk game. The Hawkeyes are looking to extend their 6-game winning streak against the Cyclones.
After escaping at home last week with a 7-3 win against South Dakota State, the Hawkeyes offense desperately needs to show improvement. The unit only managed to record one field goal against the Jackrabbits, without scoring any touchdowns.
Iowa State is looking to start 2-0 for the first time since 2012. They replace almost all of their offensive production from last year’s 7-6 squad. Will the Cyclones get their first win in Kinnick Stadium since 2014 or will the Hawkeyes take a step forward and handle their business at home?
Iowa State vs. Iowa Predictions and Betting Picks
Hunter Dekkers was phenomenal in his first start at quarterback for the Cyclones, throwing for 293 yards and four touchdowns against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State. After sitting behind Brock Purdy for two years, Dekkers finally looks ready to take over the reins. If the northwest Iowa native can beat Iowa, the hype train will really start to take off.
That’s easier said than done as Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country. The challenge for Dekkers and company will be much greater than it was in Week 1. Despite their offensive struggles last week, the Hawkeyes defense held South Dakota State to only 120 total yards of offense and stopped the Jackrabbits from doing anything they wanted offensively.
There is absolutely no question about the Iowa defense but if the Hawkeyes are going to take home the Cy-Hawk trophy this year they are going to need much more from quarterback Spencer Petras and their offense.
Is Iowa a Deserving Favorite?
As of this writing Iowa is currently a 3.5 point favorite with a 40 point total. Despite the public favoring Iowa State here it looks like that line is only moving up.
On the surface, Iowa State looked good last week and Iowa was lucky to beat an FCS foe. It makes sense that the public is siding with the Cyclones. But should they be?
The reality of what this line is saying is that Iowa and Iowa State would be close to a pick’em on a neutral field, and that just isn’t the case. As mentioned above, not only are the Cyclones replacing Purdy but they also have to replace leading running back, and “Mr. do everything Breece Hall.” They also lost Baltimore Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar, two others starters on the offensive line and eight starters on defense.
That is not a recipe for success. Even if the Cyclones did look good last week against Southeast Missouri State, this line screams overreaction on both sides with Iowa looking like the clear value.
How is a team that just went 7-6 and lost basically their entire offense only a three-point underdog on the road against a rival it hasn’t beaten in six straight years? The answer lies in Iowa’s offensive ineptness last week as they gained only 2.7 yards per carry in failing to reach the end zone and managing just a single field goal the entire game.
However, much like Louisville last week, the Hawkeyes had plenty of opportunities against the Jackrabbits; it just couldn’t capitalize on them. The Hawkeyes defense and special teams alone gave the offense six opportunities inside South Dakota State’s 40-yard line and that’s very encouraging as they look to extend their winning steak against Iowa State to seven games.
Iowa’s Defensive Dominance
No one will confuse Iowa as an offensive powerhouse and the Hawkeyes success usually hinges on how good their defense plays. Pegged to be one of the best units in the Big Ten this year, Iowa showed its dominance in Week 1 allowing only 2.1 yards per play and forcing two game altering safeties. After combining for 248 tackles in 2021 linebacker stalwarts Jack Campbell and Seth Benson lead the Hawkeyes front seven while the returning Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year Riley Moss and five-star freshman safety Xavier Nwankpa hold down the secondary.
The Iowa State offense is in for a long day against this heralded Iowa defense and if the Hawkeyes can find any success offensively, Matt Campbell and company will be looking at a seven-game losing steak against their rival. To flip the script, the Cyclones will need do their best Iowa impression on defense and if that happens expect a massive performance from sack machine Will McDonald IV.
Iowa vs Iowa State Prediction
Simply put, Iowa is being tremendously under valued in this spot. There’s a reasonable case to be made that the Hawkeyes should be close to a touchdown favorite. While it’s definitely hard to put much faith in the Iowa offense right now, the overreaction to their Week 1 performance is clearly baked into this line. Given all the unknowns on the Iowa State side, the Hawkeyes look like the clear play here as the line continues to move up, despite
Best NCAAF Bets: Iowa -3.5
