Bryant-Denny Stadium is the site of a matchup between two SEC West opponents coming off losing efforts as road favorites last week. In our continued college football odds series, we’ll be taking a look at the Mississippi State-Alabama odds and make our prediction.
The sixth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1, 3-1 SEC) hosts No. 24 Mississippi State (5-2, 3-2) Saturday night looking to bounce back from a 52-49 loss to Tennessee. The Bulldogs are also looking for answers after only scoring 17 points last week against Kentucky.
The Crimson Tide are 21-point favorites at home.
Mississippi State-Alabama Odds
Alabama-Mississippi State spread: Alabama -21
Alabama-Mississippi State over/under: 61 points
Mississippi State-Alabama Predictions and Betting Picks
Despite last week’s loss to Tennessee, Alabama still controls its own destiny en route to another trip to the SEC Championship game. As head coach of Alabama, Nick Saban has never lost two games in a row in and will look to extend his 14-game winning streak against Mississippi State on Saturday night.
“After the game on Saturday, I heard a lot of guys say, ‘we know this feeling, we know how to bounce back,'” Crimson Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. said.
On the Bulldogs side, Mississippi State is only 6-7 when coming off a loss under Mike Leach. Leach and Co. had their three-game winning streak halted with a 27-17 loss at No. 19 Kentucky last week. After scoring more than 40 points in each of the previous six games, the Bulldogs failed to score 20 in Lexington and were outgained 478-225 by the Wildcats.
Alabama was coming off a road loss on an end-of-game field goal entering last year’s Mississippi State game, too.
Things did not go well for the Bulldogs in that matchup, as the Crimson Tide held Mississippi State to 300 total yards, sacked quarterback Will Rogers seven times and intercepted three of his passes en route to 49-9 blowout win.
Will this year be any different?
Is Alabama a Deserving 21-point Favorite?
After last week’s loss to Tennessee, there probably wasn’t a tougher place to be in the college football world than Tuscaloosa. Over the last five years, Saban’s Tide have only lost four regular season games. In each of the subsequent matchups after a loss, Alabama has not only bounced back and won, but they have also covered the spread every time.
Simply put, there is no one better in the country at bouncing back from a loss than Saban, who is 9-1 in his career following a loss in the regular season.
At the top of Saban’s coaching priorities this week will have to be penalties. The Crimson Tide rank No. 1 in the country in penalties and have racked up 66 total, including a whopping 17 in last week’s loss.
Despite flags consistently holding them back, Alabama still has an offense that ranks 24th in the country in Success Rate at 45.8% and 18th in passing success.
With reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young behind center, the Crimson Tide have been consistently effective through the air, posting a 44% Success Rate on passing downs to go with a 1.62 Explosiveness ranking passing.
How Good is Alabama’s Offense?
Seven games into the season, Alabama’s passing game is committee based. Georgia Tech transfer running back Jahmyr Gibbs has the most catches (27) while five players have between 243 and 302 receiving yards. Sophomore Ja’Corey Brooks is coming off a monster performance against Tennessee and looks like Young’s top option at the moment. The Crimson Tide could also be getting a big boost from the bench on Saturday as Louisville transfer Tyler Harrell is available to make his debut.
While the Alabama passing game is one of the best units in college football, the Crimson Tide’s ability to have success on the ground should present the biggest challenge to Mississippi State on Saturday night.
With Gibbs as the main ball carrier, Alabama has averaged 1.5 second-level yards per rush with an additional 2.9 open-field yards per rush. Their successful ground attack can be attributed to the success of their all-world offensive line, Gibbs, and the unique rushing ability of quarterback Bryce Young.
Facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks 86th in the country in Defensive Success Rate against the run, Gibbs and Co. should have no problem controlling the game on the ground. Additionally, the Bulldogs rank outside the top 90 in EPA/Rush on defense. These statistical shortcomings will be a welcome sight for Alabama offensive coordinator and former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien.
Is Mississippi State’s Offense Legit?
While its defense certainly leaves a lot to be desired, Mississippi State’s offense has been phenomenal this season. Ranking third nationally with 2,324 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns, quarterback Will Rogers has already tied former Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott’s school record with 70 career passing touchdowns. Rogers needs only 337 passing yards to match Prescott’s record of 9,376 yards.
Fortunately for Mississippi State, it has been blatantly apparent that the Bulldogs strength is also where Alabama has shown to be the weakest defensively. Alabama ranks 123rd in the country in percentage of yards gained on first and second down, a statistic Mississippi State ranks 40th in offensively. The Crimson Tide also give up a 1.46 Explosiveness ranking against the pass on defense.
With the No. 9 ranked passing attack in the country, Mississippi State is currently averaging 333.o yards per game. Something will have to give in this matchup, however, as the Bulldogs have yet to score a touchdown against the Crimson Tide in the Mike Leach era. After managing just 163 passing yards in a 2020 shutout, Mississippi State had 300 yards last year but averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt, a season low on a night Will Anderson recorded four sacks.
Mississippi State-Alabama Prediction
With Alabama stabilizing as a 21-point favorite with an over/under of 61 points, the broad expectation is that the Crimson Tide should easily take care of business and more or less have their way with the Bulldogs here. Mississippi State has to know they will be fighting an uphill battle given the point spread they are up against, but staying within the number and winning the game are two entirely different beasts. While it would be a shocker to see Mississippi State actually win this game, 21.5-points is too many for the pesky Bulldogs, as Mike Leach and Co. keeps this game within two scores.
Final College Football Odds, Mississippi State-Alabama Prediction: Mississippi State +21.5 (-112, FanDuel)
