Notre Dame starts the year at No. 5 in the AP Poll. However, they also start the year as three-score underdogs to No. 2 Ohio State in the college football betting odds. Their projected win total sits at just 8.5. Either the media or the sportsbooks are wrong about the Fighting Irish, and I suspect that it’s the side with the much smaller financial stake at risk.
The Buckeyes have a star-studded roster loaded with Heisman contenders. They also own the second-shortest odds to win this year’s national championship. Every championship-winning season must start somewhere, and a dominant win over Notre Dame would help them get off on the right foot.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Week 1 College Football Betting Picks & Prediction
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Betting Odds
The Fighting Irish Enter the Post-Brian Kelly Era
Brian Kelly left for LSU late last season, and he left Marcus Freeman to take the reigns. Freeman got his first taste of the action in the Fiesta Bowl. After entering the half with a 28-14 lead, the Fighting Irish surrendered 23 points to the Oklahoma State Cowboys and lost. Still, Freeman earned the support of his players and should have plenty of backing from them this year.
Quarterback Jack Coan led last year's Fighting Irish, but he has since graduated. New quarterback Tyler Buchner isn't as good of a passer as Coan was. Last year, Coan completed 65.5% of his passes and threw just seven picks, while Buchner completed only 60% of his passes and tossed three interceptions. That said, he adds rushing upside that Coan lacked. Notre Dame needs a bit of a spark on offense after ranking just 20th in offensive efficiency last year.
The Fighting Irish lost some key pieces elsewhere on offense but kept much of their defense together. Leading rusher Kyren Williams and leading receiver Kevin Austin are both gone, but leading tackler J.D. Bertrand returns. Bertrand anchored a unit that ranked 11th in defensive efficiency last year. The Fighting Irish fared worse against the pass than the run, as they ranked 62nd in passing yards allowed and 31st in rushing yards allowed. However, that could change with the addition of ball-hawking safety Brandon Joseph in the offseason.
Can Ohio State's Defense Match their Offense?
The Buckeyes' defense cost them games against Michigan and Oregon last year. Ohio State squandered a 484-yard, three-score showing from quarterback C.J. Stroud in their seven-point loss to Oregon. Stroud threw for 394 yards and two scores against Michigan, but he couldn't keep up with Wolverines running back Hassan Haskins' five scores.
Ohio State brought in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to fix the issues on that side of the ball. Knowles won the 2021 Defensive Coordinator of the Year Award for his work at Oklahoma State. Although Knowles left Oklahoma State before last year's Fiesta Bowl, his scheme helped the Cowboys limit the Fighting Irish to just one second-half score. Knowles gets to work with Ohio State's two leading tacklers, safety Ronnie Hickman and linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, to forge a stronger Buckeye defense. He also brought Tanner McCalister, a solid nickel cornerback, with him from Oklahoma State.
No matter what happens defensively, Ohio State has the offensive firepower to dominate opponents. Stroud is the early betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy. His leading receiver from last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, will return and brings Heisman buzz of his own. ProFootballFocus ranked him the best returning receiver in college football. Big-bodied receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will start opposite Smith-Njigba, and he will be a fantastic target in the red zone. Leading rusher TreVeyon Henderson also returns, and PFF ranked him fourth at his position entering the year.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Prediction
Although Ohio State should look much better this year, it's hard to justify backing them as 17-point favorites. Those who bought the Buckeyes at the opening number of -14 should feel comfortable, but bettors who are just now getting in on the action should turn to derivative markets.
Notre Dame's stout defensive front and solid secondary could lead the Buckeyes to get running back TreVeyon Henderson involved in the passing game. That's what a few of Notre Dame's opponents did last year. Oklahoma State running back Jaylen Warren caught a season-high six passes for 34 yards in the Fiesta Bowl. Sam Howell targeted North Carolina's running backs a few times against Notre Dame, and they combined to get three catches for 27 yards. Wisconsin running back Chez Mellusi caught two passes and turned them into a season-high 39 receiving yards.
Henderson averaged 3.6 receptions for 27.4 receiving yards over Ohio State's last five games last year. Caesars has set Henderson's receiving yardage total at just 17.5, a number he surpassed five times last year -- once on a single reception. Although Henderson rarely got involved as a receiver against opponents like Tulsa, Akron and Rutgers, he simply wasn't needed much in those games. Ohio State will need him to beat Notre Dame, so look for head coach Ryan Day to get him involved as much as possible.
Best NCAAF Bet: TreVeyon Henderson Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars
