Oregon enters this game 3-1 (1-0) after a big comeback win over Washington State in what was a crazy ending for those who bet the spread. The No. 13 ranked Ducks will now play host to the 1-2 (0-2) Stanford Cardinal who are coming off back-to-back losses to top-25 teams. This will be Stanford’s third game in a row vs. a top-25 opponent.
Of Stanford’s five games vs. ranked opponents in 2021, the only victory they had was an overtime win against then No. 3 ranked Oregon. That was one of the bigger upsets in college football last year and the returning players from that Oregon team will be ready to quack back this weekend.
Oregon finished last season with a 7-2 conference record, while Stanford finished 2-7. This is a night game in Eugene, Oregon on national television. The total for this game is set to 63.5, with the Ducks favored by 17. Let’s review the matchup and get to the best bets.
Stanford vs. Oregon Week 5 College Football Betting Picks
Oregon Offense Takes Flight
The Ducks are led by former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix, who has thrown for 10 touchdowns and has really come around since the Week 1 embarrassment against Georgia. Nix led the Ducks back from down 12 to score 29 points in the fourth quarter vs. Washington State, which included two touchdown passes. He finished the game with 428 passing yards.
The Ducks have some explosive running backs as well. Three different backs with more than 11 carries are averaging over 6.7 yards per attempt, including Bucky Irving, who leads the team in yards with 265. Bucky was the lead back vs Washington State, recording 81 rushing yards and adding a receiving touchdown. Wide receiver Troy Franklin leads the team in receptions with 20. He caught a 50-yard touchdown to put the Ducks ahead in the final minute of their victory over Washington State.
The Stanford defense is balanced but not in a good way. They are not awful against the pass or run, but have struggled against both, giving up 400 yards per game of total offense. That being said, they have played some really good teams in USC and Washington the past two weeks, but offensively the Ducks are just as good as those two. Stanford recorded no sacks against Washington last week. If they can’t get to Nix then the Ducks should have no problem scoring points in this one.
Stanford Offense Led by Experienced Signal Caller
The Cardinal are lead by Junior quarterback Tanner McKee who threw for 2,300 yards and 15 touchdowns during the 2021 campaign.
McKee is not a runner, so the Oregon defense doesn’t need to worry about that. McKee has a solid 67% completion rate but has been sacked 13 times and has thrown four interceptions in three games. Oregon’s D.J. Johnson is a solid edge rusher and has three sacks on the season and he will probably have four or five after this one.
Junior running backs Casey Filkins and E.J. Smith have combined for 403 yards on 72 carries which is good for a 5.7 yards-per-carry. They have scored five touchdowns between the two of them. Senior WR Michael Wilson has 288 yards and four touchdowns as McKee’s favorite target through the air. He had a big game last week vs the Huskies and will need to repeat that if they want to keep up with Oregon.
Oregon’s defense is stingy against the run, allowing only 86 yards per game while they held Washington to 2.1 yards per carry. Against the pass is a different story. They allow 301 yards a game, worst in the Pac-12. If Stanford can keep this close, Wilson will be very busy.
Oregon vs Stanford Prediction
Stanford is 0-3 against the spread and has hit the over in both of their Pac-12 games. Oregon is 2-2 against the spread and has hit the over in their last three games. Oregon should be able to move the ball with force and Stanford will put up a respectable amount of points threw the air. The best bet for this one is the over, and the best odds are on FanDuel Sportsbook at 63.5 (most books have it at 64).
NCAAF Best Bet: Over 63.5 (FanDuel, -110)
