The TCU Horned Frogs open their season with a road trip to Boulder for a matchup against the Colorado Buffaloes. They have a significant, two-score advantage in the college football betting odds despite bringing in a new head coach and losing their leading rusher.
But whatever TCU lost, Colorado lost more. Most starters in the team’s secondary left for other teams — including TCU — leaving the Buffaloes vulnerable to a strong passing game. With TCU getting quarterback Max Duggan back, the Buffaloes may give up plenty of points through the air.
TCU vs. Colorado Week 1 College Football Betting Picks & Prediction
TCU vs. Colorado Week 1 Betting Odds
A New Era Begins in Fort Worth
Texas Christian parted ways with longtime head coach Gary Patterson last season. Patterson had led the Horned Frogs for the previous 21 years, and the school won a Rose Bowl during his tenure. But now TCU turns to Sonny Dykes. Dykes spent the last five years with SMU, and his pass-happy Mustangs racked up the 13th-most yards through the air last year.
Last year's starting quarterback, Max Duggan, will return to TCU for his fourth season. Duggan has steadily improved in passing efficiency and yards per attempt each season. His top four receivers from last year will also return. Leading rusher Zach Evans is gone, but the team's leaders in tackles, interceptions and sacks will all return.
The offensive line will need to give Duggan more time to throw -- the Horned Frogs blockers ranked 105th in adjusted sack rate last year. TCU will return star interior lineman Steve Avila, and the team added another interior lineman, Alan Ali, from SMU through the transfer portal. However, tackle play could remain an issue.
Colorado Torn Apart by the Transfer Portal
Opposing teams circled the Buffalo like buzzards this offseason. Ole Miss landed the team's star cornerback, Mekhi Blackmon. Michigan State took leading rusher Jarek Broussard. Oregon took defensive back Christian Gonzalez. TCU even got in on the action and took Mark Perry, who led the Buffaloes in interceptions and finished with the second-most tackles last year.
Pass defense will be an issue early in the year for Colorado. Three redshirt freshmen are expected to start alongside senior safety Isaiah Lewis. Colorado's nickel cornerback is also a redshirt freshman. Lewis already had to lead the team in tackles last year, so asking him to do more work in coverage may not work. The unit may not get much help from the pass rush either. Colorado's defensive front ranked ninth worst in adjusted sack rate. They drop to sixth worst in the metric on passing downs.
On the bright side, quarterback J.T. Shrout could jumpstart the offense. Finally healthy, the Tennessee transfer will get to show what he can do -- although he may not have much to work with. Colorado's leading wide receiver, Brenden Rice, recorded only 299 yards on 21 receptions last year. He now joins Lincoln Riley at USC. Tight end Brady Russell actually led the team in receiving with 307 yards on 25 catches in 2021, but he did not find the end zone.
TCU vs. Colorado Week 1 Prediction
Duggan should shred the Buffaloes through the air. That's what both the books and sharps expect. TCU opened as a 9-point favorite over Colorado, but with 86% of the money coming in on the Horned Frogs, the books have jacked the line up to 13.5. Fortunately, it still rests under the key number of 14.
Still, the spread is a bit wide for a road game. Colorado went a respectable 3-3 against the spread at home last year, but TCU went just 1-4 against the spread on the road. Bettors looking to pivot to derivative markets in hopes of avoiding a backdoor cover should note that Colorado ranked eighth worst in second-half scoring and second worst in second-half time of possession last year. Even if the Horned Frogs get off to a slow start, they should cover the full-game spread.
Best NCAAF Bet: TCU -13.5 (-110) at SuperBook
