The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels and San Jose State Spartans enter this matchup with the best records in the Mountain West West Division.
It’s an unfamiliar spot for two teams that are usually at the bottom of the barrel. San Jose State won just five games last season while UNLV only won two. Surprisingly, these two teams have started a combined 7-2.
The market has been slow to catch up to UNLV’s success. The Runnin’ Rebels enter this matchup as seven-point underdogs to the Spartans.
Perhaps the Spartans are worthy of their high valuation. They’ve played a much tougher schedule than UNLV, including facing off against Auburn on the road, which was a game they kept within 8 points.
We need to break down this matchup further to see who has the edge.
UNLV vs. San Jose State College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions
Marcus Arroyo Taking Big Step as HC
The Rebels returned just 12 starters — six on offense and six on defense — to a team that won two games last season. They only beat New Mexico and Hawaii a year ago.
They were presumed dead before the season began. But maybe we overlooked them.
UNLV picked up transfers to bolster an offensive line that returned 69 career starts, and it’s been a top 50 unit so far this season. The Rebels are rushing for 4.4 YPC behind that line and are top-25 nationally in Rush Success Rate.
The Rebels also returned a number of their top rushers, making for a deep unit despite losing their top overall runner.
Quarterback Doug Brumfield has stepped into the starting role and performed excellently, completing over 70% of his passes for over eight yards per attempt and an 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio.
Brumfield is a big, tough guy who has also added 150 yards rushing and five scores. He does things like this that, besides scoring six points, elevate his whole team.
The fact that Doug Brumfield smiled and got up after this…..and also scored a touchdown….? pic.twitter.com/eam4qVn621
— Paloma Villicana FOX5 (@PalomaVillicana) September 18, 2022
The UNLV defense also returned nine of its top 11 tacklers and has taken a massive step forward in multiple areas. Specifically, they’ve improved against the pass and in the red zone.
Third-year head coach Marcus Arroyo has clearly taken a huge step forward. He’s doing the most he can with his pieces and has already doubled UNLV’s win total from last season. That is the thing we overlooked the most.
The Runnin’ Rebels are eighth in PFF’s tackling grades and 12th in SP+’s special teams ranking, both attesting to this team’s mistake prevention. That’s a coaching difference.
San Jose State Relying on Strong Receiver Play
I was really high on the Spartans entering the season. They returned a lot of production on both sides of the ball, including eight defensive starters (representing eight of the top nine tacklers).
They’ve impressed so far. The numbers aren’t all there, but they just outscored Wyoming and Western Michigan by a total score of 67-22.
The most impressive result was against Auburn. The Spartans managed a 41% Success Rate against an SEC defense and made five drives past Auburn’s 40-yard line. While the post-game win expectancy was 100% for Auburn, the Spartans lost by eight as 24-point favorites.
That says something about the talent level of this team.
Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro hasn’t blown up the world since arriving on campus, but he’s averaging over eight YPA despite completing only 57% of his passes. He’s just one of 44 quarterbacks with an average depth of target beyond 10 yards yet hasn’t thrown a pick in the process.
Cordeiro also adds a dimension with his rush attack, although the Spartans don’t rush the ball much, doing so at the 105th-highest rate in the nation.
This offense is predicated on an electric set of receivers, with Elijah Cooks, Charles Ross and Justin Lockhart. All are veraging over 15 YPR on a combined 48 receptions. This offense can explode on you.
UNLV vs San Jose State Pick
The Spartans are a much-more talented team that has played a much more difficult schedule.
The Rebels returned little talent and have played New Mexico, Utah State, and North Texas in the last three weeks. UNLV was down 17 at one point to New Mexico before storming back. There are holes in this team.
San Jose State will be a wake-up call for UNLV, especially with the Spartans at home. The Spartans’ defense is top 20 in Rush Rate and top 10 in avoiding explosive plays. They will keep Brumfield, Robbins, and the whole UNLV offense in front of them.
The sharp money is all over the Spartans, having pushed this line up from the opener of SJSU -5.5. I’d make this spread two touchdowns and would play it up to a touchdown.
Best NCAAF Bet: San Jose State -6.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook | Buy to -7 (-110)
