The Western Michigan Broncos open their season with a road game at No. 15 Michigan State. The Spartans enter the year riding high off an 11-2 record, although leading rusher Kenneth Walker III is off for the NFL. Still, enough key pieces return for Michigan State fans to warrant optimism.
An upset feels almost out of the question here. Still, the Broncos are no strangers to beating ranked teams — they beat Pitt last year. Payton Thorne and the Spartans will want to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke by scoring a dominant win over their MAC opponent. Just enough value remains on the college football betting markets to warrant a wager on Michigan State.
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Week 1 Betting Picks
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Odds
Running Game Key to Western Michigan's Hopes
After a 2021 campaign that could've been so much more, the Western Michigan Broncos will look to get back on top of the Mid-American Conference. Their 8-5 record included a win over Pittsburgh, but also losses to MAC rivals Ball State, Toledo, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Starting quarterback Kaleb Eleby and top receiver Skyy Moore are gone, but leading rushers Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson will both return.
Tyler and Jefferson will likely anchor a run-first offense for Western Michigan. The team averaged the 16th-most yards rushing per game on the 11th-most attempts last year, and roster turnover elsewhere on offense should put more on their plate. Quarterback Jack Salopek will start under center for the Broncos despite having attempted just five passes in his college career. He'll work with a receiving corps that features just one returning member ever to log a college catch.
The defense struggled last season and may continue to do so. The Broncos ranked 92nd in defensive efficiency and lost leading tackler Ali Fayad. Western Michigan gave up 500-plus yards to its only Power 5 opponents, Michigan and Pitt, and another such performance could be in the cards on Friday. That said, much of opposing offense production came on the ground.
Big Changes Needed for Michigan State
Expectations should be higher for a Michigan State team coming off an 11-2 record. Unfortunately, the flaws entering this season are obvious. Leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who accounted for 1725 all-purpose yards and 19 of Michigan State's offensive touchdowns -- a whopping 38% -- has joined the Seattle Seahawks. Worse, the Spartans' NCAA-worst secondary that gave up 340.8 yards per game will feature bad returning players alongside mediocre or inexperienced newcomers.
But the Spartans will return starting quarterback Payton Thorne and leading receiver Jayden Reed. They will combine to form a solid passing attack as transfer running backs Jarek Broussard and Jalen Berger adjust to the offense.
The Spartans will also bring back most of their defensive front. Star defensive tackle Jacob Slade enters the year as Pro Football Focus' second-best returning defensive lineman. Breakout freshman and leading tackler Cal Haladay will return to anchor the linebacking corps. The duo helped Michigan State allow the 11th-fewest yards rushing per game last year. That said, the Spartans' inept secondary meant opposing teams attempted just 33.3 rushes per game.
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction
Don't bet on an upset this Friday. Western Michigan's strength is the ground game, but Michigan State's weakness has been a strong passing attack. With Salopek leading the Broncos under center and Moore off to the Kansas City Chiefs, Western Michigan won't be able to capitalize upon the struggling Spartan secondary.
Michigan State is a 21-point favorite at most books, but the 20.5 remains available at FanDuel. The Spartans have attached only 68% of the cash on 72% of the tickets, which renders this play a bit of a public one, but the books might be overvaluing Western Michigan because of their effective passing game last season. Try to get in under the three-score threshold to secure a solid return.
Best NCAAF Bet: Michigan State -20.5 (-110) at FanDuel | Play to -21
