It was another wild week in the NFL. There were some massive performances at the quarterback position, which has caused plenty of movement in the MVP market. Some of the preseason favorites for the award also continue to disappoint, which has caused their odds to plummet. Should bettors consider buying low or selling high on some of these players?
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into NFL Week 3.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Josh Allen +450 to +350
The rich get richer. Allen was already the betting favorite at most sportsbooks, but his odds have shrunk even further following his performance Monday against the Titans. He was incredible once again, tallying 317 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-7 victory. He was so good that he didn’t even need to take the field in the fourth quarter, and the Bills have started their season by winning their first two games by a combined score of 72-17. Those victories have come against two playoff teams from last year, including an opening-night beatdown of the defending champion Rams in their own building.
It’s always scary to back this big of a favorite just two weeks into the season, but health may be the only thing that can stop Allen and the Bills. This might be the last chance to get in on Allen.
Verdict: Buy
Riser: Jalen Hurts +1400 to +1100
This is the second straight week that Hurts has shown up in the “Winners” section, and he now has the third-shortest MVP odds across most of the industry. He is still +1100 on PointsBet, while he’s as low as +800 on DraftKings.
Hurts has been very good to start the year, but he is not as playable at this price tag. Despite the team scoring 62 points through the first two weeks, Hurts’ stats aren’t all that impressive. He’s thrown just one touchdown, but he has racked up three scores on the ground. Is it possible for an NFL MVP to have fewer than 30 touchdown passes? Probably not. For comparison, Lamar Jackson threw 36 touchdowns in his 2019-20 MVP campaign. Hurts was ultimately a very good bet before the start of the year, but those who didn’t grab him then have probably missed the boat.
Verdict: Sell
Riser: Lamar Jackson +1550 to +1200
Speaking of Jackson, he put together a massive game in Week 2 against the Dolphins. His team didn’t manage to win, but he’s on pace for the best passing season of his career. He leads the league with a 10.2% touchdown percentage, and he also leads all quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt and yards per completion.
Of course, Jackson’s rushing stats are going to be there as well. He had a 79-yard touchdown run in Week 2 — the longest in the league so far this season — and he’s averaging an absurd 9.1 yards per carry.
His odds are still hovering in the +1200 range, and that’s a solid price for a former MVP. The Ravens figure to be good all year, and he has the narrative of “betting on himself” working in his favor as well.
Verdict: Buy
Riser: Tua Tagovailoa +4000 to +2200
Jackson was overshadowed by Tagovailoa last week, who had arguably the most impressive performance of the young season. He racked up 469 yards and six touchdowns, and he now unsurprisingly leads the league in most passing categories. Overall, he’s averaging 369.5 yards per game and seven touchdowns passing, and the Dolphins are tied with the Bills atop the AFC East.
The big question is, can Tagovailoa keep it going? He has plenty of things working in his favor. He has two excellent receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and new head coach Mike McDaniel is not afraid to air it out.
However, Tagovailoa benefited from a perfect game script last week. The Dolphins trailed for the majority of the game, and the Ravens may have taken their foot off the gas. Miami managed just 20 points against the Patriots the week prior, so the Dolphins are not quite yet the Chiefs 2.0. Ultimately, this feels like a spot to sell high on Tagovailoa.
Verdict: Sell
Faller: Joe Burrow +1500 to +2200
The Bengals are currently sitting at 0-2, which has historically been a bad sign for making the postseason. Since 1970, only 38 of 400 teams who have started 0-2 have gone on to make the playoffs. That’s good for a rate of just 9.5%, and odds have been even worse recently: No one has made the playoffs following an 0-2 start since 2018.
Making matters worse, the Bengals’ two losses have come to the Steelers and the Cowboys minus Dak Prescott. That’s not exactly getting off on the right foot. Their revamped offensive line has struggled mightily in both games, albeit against teams with phenomenal pass rushers.
Burrow should have better weeks moving forward, but he’s clearly behind the 8-ball. Given the starts for Allen, Hurts and Jackson, it’s hard to see Burrow making up the difference.
Verdict: Sell
Faller: Tom Brady +1200 to +2500
Unlike the Bengals, the Buccaneers are currently sitting at 2-0. However, their star quarterback has not looked like himself. That’s true in the literal sense — he looks kind of like the guy from The Scream painting — and it’s also true on the field. Brady has averaged just 201.0 yards passing per game through the first two weeks, way down from his league-leading mark of 312.7 last year. He’s also tallied just two touchdowns after leading the league with 43 in 2021-22.
There are more questions now than there have been with Brady for a long time. Does he still want to play football? Has Father Time finally gotten the best of him? Where did the rest of his face go? Still, there hasn’t been much money made by doubting Brady during his career. He’s started the year with tough matchups against the Cowboys and Saints, and he hasn’t had his full complement of receivers for either contest. He gets the benefit of the doubt for the time being.
Verdict: Buy
Russell Wilson: +2200 to +4000
Wilson was a popular MVP pick after escaping Seattle. He was never properly utilized during his tenure with the Seahawks, and he was heading to a Broncos squad with plenty of pass-catching talent.
Unfortunately, things haven’t gone to plan for Wilson to start the year. He simply hasn’t played well, ranking merely 24th in Pro Football Focus grade at the position through the first two weeks. That puts him behind a ton of mediocre players, including his replacement in Seattle.
The ironic thing is, Pete Carroll just told reporters that he needs to unleash Geno Smith moving forward. If Carroll does let Smith eat, there is truly no justice in the world.
Verdict: Sell
