Someone call the cops! We got robbed of an absolute super smash +910 Dolphins-Titans parlay on Monday Night Football. I mean, I cried myself to sleep after losing that one. I won’t even lie to you guys, this Chargers-Raiders game is uglier than your 700-pound aunt who got hit with the ugly stick. But guess what? You can still gamble real American dollars on it, and that’s what we’re doing. Now, don’t go WILD on this because we’re spicing it up to +787 with this Chargers-Raiders same-game parlay tonight. But let’s have some fun.
Chargers-Raiders Same Game Parlay Bet for TNF
Austin Ekeler 25+ Receiving Yards (TNF Player Prop)
The Easton Stick — I still can’t believe this is the name of an actual human being — era began last Sunday with a lot of action going toward Austin Ekeler.
Obviously, the easy outlet for the quarterback making his debut is going to be like a baby with its blanky. Will he get seven targets again like he did last week? I don’t know about that.
So instead of taking a receptions prop for Ekeler, let’s just take the 25-yard milestone on bet365.
It goes without saying — Ekeler could top 25 yards on a single catch. Is it super likely? No. But if he gets three or four catches, I’d assume one of them is long enough to get us most of the way to the 25 we want.
Davante Adams Under 6.5 Receptions (TNF Player Prop)
Davante Adams is coming into this Thursday Night Football matchup battling an illness, but it was reported earlier that he is likely to suit up tonight for the Raiders.
The over/under for Adams’ receptions is sitting at 6.5, which just seems too high. Look, I get it. He’s Davante Adams. But he also has a schlub throwing him the ball.
In his last nine games, Adams has only gone over the 6.5 receptions total three times. If I lose because he catches seven balls while being sick, then I lose.
But my mind says this is too high, and the OddsShopper Prop Tool is telling me the exact same thing. Right now, the Prop Tool lists the under on 6.5 as one of the best EV bets on the board and has a 58% expected win rate.
Unders aren’t fun, but they’re profitable.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Thursday Night Football: BetMGM has Davante Adams under 6.5 receptions at -130 odds, below the true odds of -138 and far below the -177 odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on Adams a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the NFL— subscribe to OddsShopper Premium!
Jakobi Meyers 4+ Receptions (TNF Player Prop)
If we’re going under on Adams’ receptions, we’re going to need someone else to catch the ball some, so let’s do a little correlation here with Jakobi Meyers.
Looking at the OddsShopper Prop Tool again, it’s glowing with a 61% expected win rate on Meyers to go over the 3.5 reception mark tonight against the Chargers.
Over the last three weeks, Meyers has earned six targets per game from Aidan O’Connell, and he’s caught at least four balls in each of those games.
Let’s ride the trend here and roll with the four-plus receptions prop for Meyers and trust the OddsShopper Prop Tool once again.
Josh Palmer Under 3.5 Receptions (TNF Player Prop)
How many times will the Chargers have Stick drop back and throw a forward pass? That’s the real question here. Because if it’s not many, this feels like a mere lock in my opinion.
Josh Palmer is coming back to action tonight for the first time since October, and he’s stepping into a 3.5 receptions prop.
I’m fully aware that Keenan Allen is out for this game, so it should open up some playing time for other receivers. But I mean, this number just feels too high for a guy coming off a knee injury that sidelined him for more than a month.
Our projections like him for under 3.5 receptions tonight, and we’ve got it listed with a 56% expected win rate as well.
Final Chargers-Raiders Same-Game Parlay Bet for Thursday Night Football
Leg 1: Austin Ekeler 25+ Receiving Yards (TNF Player Prop)
Leg 2: Davante Adams Under 6.5 Receptions (TNF Player Prop)
Leg 3: Josh Palmer Under 3.5 Receptions (TNF Player Prop)
Leg 4: Jakobi Meyers 4+ Receptions (TNF Player Prop)
= +787 bet365 Sportsbook (w/50% Boost)
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
New to sports betting? OddsShopper’s selection of Betting 101 articles is here to help. Check out our guide to finding positive expected value (+EV), and you can unlock more +EV plays by signing up for OddsShopper Premium! Don’t believe OddsShopper will change your betting results? Check out profits from OddsShopper experts:
This right here is the OddsShopper difference.
