It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Monday’s expert NFL picks, the injury question marks to some major superstars are creating some serious betting value, and one of said superstars highlights our 49ers-Vikings locks. Let’s get into some Monday Night Football bets.
Expert NFL Picks Today: 49ers-Vikings | October 23
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San Francisco 49ers–Minnesota Vikings (43.5 Game Total)
Monday night’s tilt of the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings was always going to be short two superstars, as dynamic wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel were ruled out at the start of the week. But reports strongly suggested the Niners were also in jeopardy of losing one-of-a-kind running back Christian McCaffrey in this road matchup with an oblique injury he sustained during Week 6’s loss in Cleveland. However, after progressing into a limited practice session on Saturday, it sounds as though Kyle Shanahan’s offense will get its most important piece on the field after all.
But to what extent remains to be seen, which makes speculating about the backfield an important topic of discussion for bettors and fantasy players alike. McCaffrey has played on 75% of the offensive snaps for San Francisco this season, but that hardly tells the story of his full usage. After 85% and a whopping 100% of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively, that number trailed down to 59% as the Niners faced the Giants on a Thursday Night and thus a short week. That number then remained down at 59%, where backup Elijah Mitchell mixed in for 36% of the snaps.
And now, there’s another back in Jordan Mason who’s carved out a roll for himself the past three weeks, playing at least 15% of snaps in each game since Week 4. That creates quite the quandary, as McCaffrey is dinged up and Shanahan has two options to handle some of the more straightforward carries on non-passing downs. Plus, while the Vikings are in no way stellar stoppers of the run, giving up 112.3 rushing yards per game (18th in NFL), I’d need to be comfortable projecting McCaffrey for north of 50% of the team’s rushing attempts at that number.
Unfortunately, that’s a feat he’s accomplished just once in his past four games (Week 4), making me extremely interested in the under on 65.5 rushing yards. I only have a small play on it at the moment, but it’s currently my favorite bet from this game, as there is a wide range of outcomes on McCaffrey’s workload and this game script in general.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Christian McCaffrey UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards -110 (LIKE) at BetMGM
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