It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Thursday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at one star receiver in this matchup who should benefit from one of his teammates being out. Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Bengals-Ravens | November 16
Cincinnati Bengals–Baltimore Ravens (46.5 Game Total)
We have a serious football game with serious implications on tap for Thursday evening as the Ravens (7-3) host the Bengals (5-4). Both teams had four-game winning streaks snapped in Week 10, so this Week 11 showdown will prove pivotal to the AFC playoff landscape. And while the Ravens’ main skill position players enter tonight’s festivities healthy, the same cannot be said for the Bengals, who will be without wide receiver Tee Higgins for a second straight week.
Because we just saw this same scenario in Week 10 against the Texans in a competitive game script, projecting snaps and usage for these Bengals pass catchers becomes a fairly simple task. Only four Cincinnati wide receivers saw the field — Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Trenton Irwin and Andrew Iosivas. And while Iosivas was in for only 18 of 60 offensive plays (and will have those snaps replaced on Thursday, as he’s already been ruled out), the other three wideouts saw at least 50 snaps each. It’s obvious that Chase is the Bengals’ top option regardless of circumstances, but Higgins’ absence creates another opportunity for Boyd and Irwin to expand on their typical roles within the framework of the Bengals offense.
Which brings me to this: I am completely floored by the bookmakers’ receptions prop on Boyd specifically. Sure, this is a drastic step-up in competition, as the Ravens defense has allowed just 173.1 passing yards per game to its opposition this season (4th in NFL) compared to the Texans’ 246.4 per game (24th in NFL). But the Ravens defense has actually allowed 22.9 targets per game to the wide receiver position in 2023, the second most in the NFL. And Boyd is coming off a 12-target game, five more than the next-highest Bengals pass catcher in Tanner Hudson and double the volume that went Chase’s way. getting the over of 4.5 receptions at plus money? That’s a no-doubt, full-unit lock play on the over for me.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 Receptions +110 (LOCK) at Caesars Sportsbook
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