It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Thursday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at one of the highest-profile players in the Broncos-Chiefs game, though keep in mind that he is technically questionable (but expected to play). Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Broncos-Chiefs | October 12
Denver Broncos–Kansas City Chiefs (47.0 Game Total)
We’ve got a wild one on tap for Thursday Night Football as the Denver Broncos visit Arrowhead and the Kansas City Chiefs as massive dogs. But perhaps the wildest part about this game besides the 10.5-point spread is, how about 15 to 20 mph winds with 30-plus mph gusts expected at kickoff? Now, I’m not one to overreact to weather environments that bring no freezing cold or precipitation of any kind, but it’s no secret that the public loves to bet overs. So I’m of the mind that if a few props involving the passing game from either side can grade out as decent to neutral plays independent of the weather, the wind could certainly blow your way and make a bet look even better.
So let’s key in on the centerpiece pass catcher from either side in this game, Travis Kelce. The Chiefs star tight end made headlines for actual football reasons (for once), turning his ankle before halftime of Week 5’s victory against the Vikings, only to return and put up a massive box score in the process. But on a short week against a Broncos team that couldn’t stop a nosebleed on the ground (league-worst 187.6 rushing yards allowed per game) — combined with the ankle injury that could slightly limit the number of snaps he sees — there are plenty of reasons to project Kelce’s workload to fall well below the 9.2 targets and 6.8 receptions he’s averaged in his four games this season.
And that’s where the potential weather implications can further the case for some unders, especially in the case of his 6.5-reception line across the industry. Priced at just -120 to short this prop at BetMGM, there are a lot of outs to cash this ticket, and I’d be remiss not to fade the public in this spot. So it’s gonna be forever or it’s going to go down in flames: Lock in the under on 6.5 receptions for Kelce at any price better than -130.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Travis Kelce UNDER 6.5 Receptions -120 (LOCK) at BetMGM
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