It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Thursday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at one of the game lines for Buccaneers-Bills, a matchup with injury questions that seem to have been answered. Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Buccaneers-Bills | October 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers–Buffalo Bills (43.5 Game Total)
Tonight’s Thursday Night Football festivities pit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Buffalo Bills. It’s a game with gigantic implications as the Bills try to avoid falling to .500, while the Bucs (3-3) are aiming to play spoilers on the road and stay above that mark. A step in the right direction for Tampa Bay is that Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin, who entered Thursday morning as questionable, are both expected to play. Considering the Buccaneers’ lack of offense as is, it would have been a disaster to have been relegated to a backup quarterback and replacement wide receiver instead of those two.
With that in mind, I’ve homed in on the over of 16.5 for the Buccaneers team total. OddsShopper has identified this as a +EV over at Caesars Sportsbook, as it sits inside of standard juice at -105 and carries drastically better odds than any other book. Is this spot difficult on the road for Mayfield and Co.? Of course! Will the Bucs be able to run the football whatsoever? Probably not!
But that’s the beauty of a market-based approach: When one book is sitting more than 15 cents away from the sharper sportsbooks as of writing this, there’s not a lot more that needs to be said. I’m in the business of making +EV bets, and while I’m not going to lock this play since the board is awfully sparse tonight and the play carries just a 4% expected value, having Godwin and Mayfield confirmed in earlier this morning has me confident enough to make it my best bet of the game.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 16.5 Team Total -105 (LIKE) at Caesars Sportsbook
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