It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Thursday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at one of the top game lines for Jaguars-Saints, a matchup with quite a few injury question marks. Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Jaguars-Saints | October 19
Jacksonville Jaguars–New Orleans Saints (40.5 Game Total)
The picture became much clearer this morning for Thursday night’s matchup, as Trevor Lawrence was announced as on track to start Week 7’s road matchup versus the Saints. This is obviously great news for the Jaguars, as his exit in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s dominant 37-20 win against the Colts put his availability into peril for the short week. But after logging limited practices on both Tuesday and Wednesday, the franchise quarterback is fully expected to suit up.
And as a result, I fully expect the Jaguars to be the better football team in this one. The Saints sit at 3-3 on the young season but have one of the worst against-the-spread records in football at 1-4-1. They’ve also faced the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL so far according to PFF yet have managed to drop three of their past four contests, with the lone win in that stretch coming against the putrid Patriots.
Still, somehow the public is all over the Saints in this spot, with 65% of the money and tickets backing the home favorites on the moneyline. That has me inclined to go the complete opposite direction, especially considering Demario Davis (leg) and Tyrann Mathieu (leg) are questionable to play for the Saints. These are two of the best defensive talents in football, and either of them being out or limited opens up an infinitely easier path for the Jags offense, especially through the air.
So wait for Lawrence’s official status if you really want to, but with Jacksonville moneyline sitting at +118 over at FanDuel, I am pulling the trigger now before that news breaks. Plus, if the key Saints defensive pieces end up missing this game, I could see this number falling closer to even money come kickoff. That makes the value here on the Jaguars my favorite bet of the night.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Jaguars Moneyline (LOCK) at FanDuel
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