It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks series. For Monday’s expert NFL picks, it is a two-game slate kicking off simultaneously, and there is some strong value in betting a couple of the bigger names in these two games. Let’s get into the best bets for Week 14 Monday Night Football.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Eagles-Chiefs | December 11
Green Bay Packers–New York Giants (45.5 Game Total)
There are two games on tap for this Monday Night kicking off at the exact same time (for whatever reason). But hey, that just means double the betting opportunities, so let’s take advantage starting with a play from the Packers-Giants game.
With Green Bay running back Aaron Jones likely out for a third consecutive week, a lot of attention will rightfully be put on A.J. Dillon to lead the Packers rushing game attack against a putrid Giants defense. In Weeks 11 through 13, Dillon saw his volume ramped up to 50%, 67% and 75% of the team’s rushing opportunities. And despite just 145 rushing yards over 46 carries the past three weeks — a paltry 3.2 yard per carry average — the Packers winning all three of those games plus no serviceable backup behind Dillon should solidify his rushing game role in this road spot.
But that doesn’t mean we need to go out of our way to back him in the passing game. In fact, OddsShopper has identified the under of 15.5 receiving yards for Dillon at FanDuel Sportsbook as one of the best plays on the board, and I am completely aligned with it. For starters, that’s an extra 2 yards of buffer from the 13.5 number listed at sharp books, and the -110 at FanDuel also beats out the -115 or above that those 13.5s carry. And secondly, Dillon has run ultra-hot with limited passing game involvement. He’s converted all eight of his targets into receptions the past three weeks despite running a route on just 58%, 24% and 46% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks, resulting in a 11%, 11% and 3% target share in those outings. Plus, Patrick Taylor should be the Packers’ preferred passing-down back if the game script necessitates it, so I’m happy to be on the right side of the market and short Dillon’s receiving yards on Monday Night in the Meadowlands.
Expert NFL Picks Today: A.J. Dillon UNDER 15.5 Receiving Yards -110 (LIKE) at FanDuel
Tennessee Titans–Miami Dolphins (37.0 Game Total)
Next up was my favorite play of the week on Lindy’s NFL Leans, Likes and Locks program on the OddsShopper channel, so if you tuned in for that one, my apologies for the redundancy. But I’m happy to put my thoughts into words here, because generally there aren’t enough words to describe how good Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been this season. And it’s not like the market doesn’t respect his talent, as he routinely has the highest-listed receiving prop on the board week in and week out.
But I’d argue they’ve had a tough time adjusting for just how absurd his role is in Mike McDaniel’s offense this season. Let’s take a look at some of his closing lines and his actual receiving yardage totals:
- Week 11 vs. LV — 100.5, goes for 146
- Week 12 at NYJ — 75.5, goes for 102
- Week 13 at WAS — 105.5, goes for 157
Now, I am not a trends guy by any means, but three consecutive overs with steady volume was the recipe for me to smash this line when it opened at 104.5 and again at 106.5. Unfortunately, the best line available is now set at 112.5 -110 over at FanDuel Sportsbook, but this is still an advantageous play on the over. Hill draws a Titans secondary surrendering 230.8 passing yards per game (22nd in NFL), and the perceived cornerback matchup of Sean Murphy-Bunting — the 77th-ranked coverage corner according to PFF — means another field day could be on tap for the Dolphins aerial attack star. So get on board now, and let’s enjoy the show together tonight.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Tyreek Hill OVER 112.5 Receiving Yards -110 (LOCK) at FanDuel
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