It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Monday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at a superstar wide receiver as the central focus of our Packers-Raiders locks. Let’s get into some Monday Night Football bets.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Packers-Raiders | October 9
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Green Bay Packers–Las Vegas Raiders (45.5 Game Total)
This is an interesting spot on Monday night as the hamstring-riddled Green Bay Packers take on the Las Vegas Raiders in the desert. Both teams have been spinning the tires of late; the Packers lay down against the Lions last week in a Sunday night home beatdown to drop to 2-2, while the Raiders have lost three straight, and coaching snafus by head coach Josh McDaniels have become a weekly occurrence. Despite the laundry list of issues and injuries with both squads (especially Aaron Jones’ expected absence for the Packers) there’s a lot of star power on the offensive end to be excited about in this one — well, at least on the Raiders’ side of the ball with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.
Now, there were some questions surrounding Adams’ availability after he sustained a shoulder injury against the Chargers last week. But he triumphantly returned to that game — plus logged a full practice on Saturday — so I feel pretty confident we will see him as a full go with his normal role in Week 5. And that role, by the way, has been utterly ridiculous this season: A team- and league-high 38.2% target rate, over half his team’s total air yards and 50 total targets in essentially 3 1/2 games. Not normal.
But before we get to the bet, one piece of injury news to pay very close attention to in regards to Adams’ potential performance here is shadow cover corner Jaire Alexander entering Monday night with a true questionable tag due to a torso injury. He’s had sublime individual performances, stopping the likes of other electric wide receivers such as Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown over the past two years, albeit mostly in the confines of Lambeau Field. But there is no question his absence would further bolster my love for Adams props in this spot.
Still, even with Alexander in, there’s no way Adams’ +125 anytime touchdown prop at Caesars Sportsbook can be passed up in this spot. He is three years removed from an 18-touchdown regular season, and his role is even more pronounced with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback this year than it was with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay back then. Adams has scored three of the Raiders’ seven total touchdowns this season and has converted six of his 11 red zone targets on the year into two of those scores. So no matter where on the field the Raiders are, Adams’ dominant target share and red zone opportunities makes any number better than -105 a +EV lock.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown +125 (LOCK) at Caesars Sportsbook
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