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Categories NFL

Expert Week 2 NFL Picks: Falcons Run Game Is The Real Deal (September 17)

Updated September 17, 2023 | 7:19 am CDT by Dave Loughran
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Week 2 is bringing some interesting matchups following the drama-filled Week 1. Here we will turn to OddsShopper to find some expert Week 2 NFL picks, including the Falcons and Bills in solid matchups as they look to build upon Week 1 results. Let’s dive in.

Expert Week 2 Picks: Falcons, Bills & More

Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, and subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 2 now!

Green Bay Packers-Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Aaron Jones or Christian Watson are unlikely to play on Sunday, which neuters a  decent but not great Packers offense, and it’ll be tough to see them jump out to a big lead like they did against the Bears. I’m also not convinced that they’ve bolstered their run defense enough to successfully slow down a barrage of rushing attempts from Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

The Falcons offensive line is more equipped to handle this matchup than the Bears were, and defensively they’ve made some noticeable additions that should help to keep games close. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them dominate time of possession at home, lean on the run and get just enough pressure on Jordan Love to make life difficult—especially if he’s missing his top two playmakers.

Expert Week 2 Pick: Falcons

Best Spread Line: -1.5 on Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM

Best Moneyline: -122 on DraftKings

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New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys (38.5 Total)

No one should view this game through just one lens; on one hand, Aaron Rodgers is done for the year and Zach Wilson is objectively bad. The Jets offense has virtually no chance of staying competitive if it finds itself in an early hole on Sunday. On the other hand, the Jets defense is legitimately dominant and is capable of keeping this Cowboys offense at bay for at least most of this game. There’s also the added wrinkle of whether or not Wilson can play turnover-free football. If he can and the Jets can pick up yards on the ground with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook, the end result will be a Jets defeat but not a particularly embarrassing one.

Ultimately, this will be a war of attrition between a strong Cowboys offense and an elite Jets defense, with the Cowboys wearing them down towards the end. But unless Wilson shines as the Cowboys’ best player (not a typo) and hands them the ball inside the red zone multiple times, I wouldn’t expect the Jets to crumble.

That’s why I’m targeting the under; you could quite easily see a 24-10 or 21-7 Cowboys victory where they cover the spread but the game soars under the total. I have enough respect for the Jets defense and such little respect for their offense that, even at 38.5 points, I’m willing to go under.

Expert Week 2 Pick: Under

Best Line: Under 38.5 on Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills (-8)

I’m not worried about the Bills — not yet at least. Josh Allen’s last three meetings with the Jets were all equally underwhelming, so I’m not at all surprised to have seen him struggle last Monday. He forced some balls and made some mistakes, but to indict Allen on his performance without crediting the Jets seems foolish.

The Raiders are not the same type of threat this Sunday; they aren’t particularly well coached, and if they do fall behind early in games, Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have a hard time clawing back. Jakobi Meyers is doubtful to play with a concussion, and on defense it doesn’t look like Chandler Jones will be back anytime soon either. Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are studs, but pound-for-pound the Raiders can’t stack up to the Bills as a team.

A bounce-back performance for Allen and the Bills seems likely at home against a much softer opponent than they faced in week 1. If they come out flat this week and it becomes evident that something clearly isn’t working, I’ll more than happily reevaluate. But until then, I’m going to approach this team the same way I did in each of the last three years, where they were perennially one of the best offenses and defenses in football.

Expert Week 2 Pick: Bills

Best Line: -8 on Caesars Sportsbook

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