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NFL Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 4 (October 1)

The final week of the opening month of the NFL season brings a heightened sense of urgency, be it one of the remaining undefeated teams looking to avoid an early swoon or one of the four winless teams struggling to salvage their season. Neither the Bears nor Panthers make great upset plays going up against also winless teams, nor does any squad trying to knock off Philadelphia, San Francisco or Miami for the first time. The value comes in riding a dog that was just destroyed on their home field and on a short week. Let’s head to New Orleans and Buccaneers-Saints to find the best NFL upset pick for Week 4!

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NFL Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 4

Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles and Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 4 now!

Buccaneers-Saints Odds

Odds via BetMGM
Buccaneers: +145 | Saints: -175
Buccaneers +3.0: +100 | Saints -3.0: -120
Over 39.5: -110 | Under 39.5: -110

Buccaneers-Saints Upset Pick

Outside of the three undefeated teams playing in their games, there aren’t many heavy dogs this week. The Buccaneers are surprisingly as close as it gets, taking on a Saints team dealing with a key injury. The hope is by gaining Alvin Kamara back from suspension the Saints won’t feel the brunt of losing Derek Carr. The Buccaneers might be on a shorter week after getting hammered at home by the Eagles but should get a little healthier on the defensive side of the ball. The total is already dropping, and it has 17-14 written all over it — something that should help Tampa Bay in their quest for the upset. This league is all about week-to-week matchups, but what happens the previous week can still be relevant, especially when looking at how an offense might change with a new quarterback.

The Saints were a tough team to watch on offense even before losing Carr, as there’s nothing that would point to Jameis Winston taking over and improving that unit. Take away that punt return touchdown last week and this offense looks even worse in how little they can score. Yes, Kamara is back, but outside of facing the league’s best running game in Philadelphia, the Buccaneers still have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

Let’s get back to matchups, in this case the other side of the ball. Tampa’s offense slowed down against the Eagles but will be the best offense the Saints defense has played. New Orleans beat up on some hurting offenses and now faces its toughest test in Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Saints will turn the ball over one too many times, as they have the worse option of the two choices at quarterback. There’s always Dennis Allen and his atrocious record laying points, both straight up and against the spread. There is no need to take any points here, as the Buccaneers will win outright.

NFL Upset Pick for Week 4: Buccaneers +145 at BetMGM

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