Christmas Day caps off NFL Week 16, and OddsShopper is showing a bunch of value on player props for Monday’s games. I am going to highlight a couple in this article, but there are dozens of great bets available in the betting model if you are looking to grow your bankroll this weekend. Let’s get to the best Christmas Day NFL picks and betting model predictions.
NFL Week 16 Christmas Day Picks & Betting Model Predictions
Before we get into my Week 16 Christmas Day picks below, check out my results so far in 2023 across a number of different markets using OddsShopper Premium’s betting model picks and other tools. If you want to see a similar uptick in your betting wins, now is a great time to get in!
At OddsShopper, you get access to real-time fantasy projections, customizable fantasy optimizers, optimal bankroll advice, +EV bets and more. We even have parlay builders for +EV parlays and a bet conversion tool, among a host of other features.
Gus Edwards O/U 2.5 Receiving Yards
One of the easiest ways to spot value in OddsShopper is comparing the best available line to the other lines on the market. Edwards has a prop of 2.5 receiving yards on bet365, while that number is 3.5 with more juice on the over on both Tipico and Pinnacle. OddsShopper projects the fair line for the over at -155, which makes this prop the best rated bet for all Week 16 props.
NFL Week 16 Betting Model Prediction: Gus Edwards Over 2.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at bet365
Jalen Hurts O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
This is another bet with a lot of line shopping value. Both BetMGM and bet365 have this prop at +115, while every other book with a listed line has Hurts at minus money to have multiple touchdown passes.
OddsShopper is projecting this bet to win 50% of the time, so any book posting a line at plus money is going to rate out as a +EV bet. The ROI on the over 1.5 touchdowns at +115 has an 8% expected ROI.
NFL Week 16 Betting Model Prediction: Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115) at BetMGM
