We’re on to Wednesday, so while we’ve got NFL action tomorrow, most of the slate will have to wait until the weekend. We do have two Monday Night Football games this week as well, with the Bills hosting the Jaguars and the Bengals hosting the Commanders. Let’s dive into the early NFL odds for Week 3 — as well as an NFL Week 3 expert pick. If you need more NFL expert picks and analysis, learn how to find them on your own by reading our NFL betting strategy guide.
NFL Week 3 Expert Picks & Early Odds
NFL Week 3 Expert Picks & Early Odds: Lions-Cardinals, Dolphis-Seahawks & More
What Have We Learned So Far?
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest year-over-year movers in offensive EPA (or EPA per play, so positive numbers indicate improvement), defensive EPA (or EPA per play allowed, so negative numbers indicate improvement) and net EPA (EPA per play – EPA per play allowed) through Week 2.
| Team | Δ Offensive EPA | Δ Defensive EPA | Δ Net EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | 0.322 | -0.216 | 0.538  |
| LA Chargers | 0.093 | -0.42 | 0.513 |
| Arizona | 0.25 | -0.1 | 0.35 |
| Minnesota | 0.089 | -0.196 | 0.285 |
| Buffalo | 0.122 | -0.086 | 0.208 |
| Pittsburgh | -0.035 | -0.216 | 0.181 |
| Seattle | -0.024 | -0.198 | 0.174 |
| New England | 0.212 | 0.043 | 0.169 |
| NY Jets | 0.27 | 0.143 | 0.127 |
| Washington | 0.267 | 0.148 | 0.119 |
| Houston | 0.058 | -0.06 | 0.118 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.158 | 0.043 | 0.115 |
| Cincinnati | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| Atlanta | 0.025 | 0.022 | 0.003 |
| Chicago | -0.182 | -0.185 | 0.003 |
| Green Bay | -0.021 | -0.016 | -0.005 |
| Tennessee | -0.138 | -0.126 | -0.012 |
| Jacksonville | -0.025 | 0.038 | -0.063 |
| Kansas City | 0.034 | 0.11 | -0.076 |
| Indianapolis | 0.006 | 0.097 | -0.091 |
| Philadelphia | 0.004 | 0.104 | -0.1 |
| Detroit | -0.059 | 0.043 | -0.102 |
| Las Vegas | -0.1 | 0.012 | -0.112 |
| Cleveland | -0.038 | 0.091 | -0.129 |
| Denver | -0.231 | -0.085 | -0.146 |
| NY Giants | 0.031 | 0.184 | -0.153 |
| San Francisco | -0.154 | 0.024 | -0.178 |
| Baltimore | -0.055 | 0.18 | -0.235 |
| Miami | -0.229 | 0.083 | -0.312 |
| LA Rams | -0.102 | 0.234 | -0.336 |
| Dallas | -0.254 | 0.091 | -0.345 |
| Carolina | -0.32 | 0.126 | -0.446  |
Two games does not a representative sample make, but it’s worth noting just how much better a few teams look (New Orleans, LA Chargers, Arizona) and how much worse some others look (Carolina, Dallas, LA Rams, Miami). Make sure to adjust your priors accordingly.
Early NFL Odds for Week 3
Let’s look at some of the NFL odds at BetMGM for Week 3’s full slate of games.
New England @ NY Jets
Spread: NY Jets -6.5
Total: O/U 38.5
Green Bay @ Tennessee
Spread: Tennessee -3
Total: O/U 36.5
Houston @ Minnesota
Spread: Houston -2.5
Total: O/U 46
LA Chargers @ Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh -1.5
Total: O/U 53.5
Carolina @ Las Vegas
Spread: Las Vegas -5.5
Total: O/U 41
Baltimore @ Dallas
Spread: Baltimore -1.5
Total: O/U 48.5
Detroit @ Arizona
Spread: Detroit -3
Total: O/U 52.5
Jacksonville @ Buffalo
Spread: Buffalo -5.5
Total: O/U 45.5
NY Giants @ Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland -6.5
Total: O/U 38.5
Chicago @ Indianapolis
Spread: Indianapolis -1
Total: O/U 43.5
Philadelphia @ New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans -2.5
Total: O/U 49.5
Denver @ Tampa Bay
Spread: Tampa Bay -7
Total: O/U 39.5
Miami @ Seattle
Spread: Seattle -4.5
Total: O/U 41.5
San Francisco @ LA Rams
Spread: San Francisco -7.5
Total: O/U 43.5
Kansas City @ Atlanta
Spread: Kansas City -3.5
Total: O/U 46.5
Washington @ Cincinnati
Spread: Cincinnati -7.5
Total: O/U 48.5
NFL Expert Pick for Week 3: Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
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It’s hard to beat the NFL betting market. The two most improved teams on the above chart, the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers, are priced quite fairly in Week 3. The Saints are now home favorites over the Eagles. The Chargers are now slim road dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers, another much-improved team.
But then we get to the third-most-improved team, the Arizona Cardinals, and we see an interesting and likely inefficient line. The Cardinals are field goal home dogs to the Detroit Lions this week. Arizona is +0.35 in net EPA despite having played the fifth-most-improved team, Buffalo. Meanwhile, Detroit has regressed.
This week’s Lions-Cardinals game sets up as a Pros-versus-Joes spot. The trend-loving public will want exposure to Dan Campbell’s Lions, who went 5-0 ATS after a loss last season and were a dominant 5-1 ATS as road favorites.
Meanwhile, EPA-trusting sharps have every reason to believe in the Cardinals and little reason to believe in the Lions. Arizona’s passing offense is +0.53 EPA per dropback YoY. Detroit’s passing defense is +0.05 YoY (so, marginally worse — remember, we look for negative numbers on defense).
So far, Detroit’s primary source of regression has been in the passing game, with the passing offense down by -0.26 EPA per dropback YoY. The rushing offense has picked things up (0.23; +0.24 YoY), but it’s hard to blow teams out by keeping the ball on the ground.
While I do like Arizona +3, and I may end up with some additional exposure to that line by kickoff, I’m opening my week of NFL betting with an NFC West teaser: Give me Arizona +8.5 and Seattle +2.5 for -116 at DraftKings. The same bet will cost you upwards of -130 everywhere else.
NFL Expert Pick for Week 3: Arizona +8.5/Seattle +2.5 -116 at DraftKings
