The 4-7 Pittsburgh Steelers will head south to Atlanta for a battle with the Falcons. The Steelers haven’t had the season they’d hoped for, but fans can at least rally behind rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett has faced a number of tough defenses already this season and held his own, but he’ll face one of the league’s worst passing defenses this weekend. Nonetheless, onto our Steelers Week 13 betting predictions.
The predictions below might not correspond exactly to available betting markets. Still, bettors should consider these numbers when placing their wagers on Sunday’s action. Who knows — maybe these tips will help you cash a lottery same-game parlay ticket.
Steelers Week 13 Betting Predictions
No. 1. Kenny Pickett Sets Career Highs in Passing
Kenny Pickett threw for 327 yards against the Buffalo Bills in his first-career start. He is yet to eclipse that number. Further, Pickett is yet to throw for a pair of touchdowns. Beating both of those milestones is well within Pickett’s range of outcomes for Sunday’s road trip.
The Falcons have seriously struggled against the pass. Atlanta’s defense ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game (255.6) and 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3). They are also tied for 19th in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.5). The Falcons rank so poorly despite having faced a number of run-first, pass-second offenses — Taylor Heinicke threw for only 138 yards last week, and Justin Fields threw for only 154 the week before. P.J. Walker only went for 108 passing yards in his second start against Atlanta.
With the Steelers throwing the ball 59.3% of the time, Pickett should get far more chances than those quarterbacks did to beat Atlanta’s vulnerable secondary — especially if Najee Harris can’t play. He’ll also benefit from plenty of time in the pocket, as Atlanta’s pass rush ranks 32nd in pressure percentage (11%), just half of the league median.
Steelers Betting Prediction: Kenny Pickett Goes Ballistic
No. 2. Diontae Johnson Finally Finds the End Zone
This only counts as a bold prediction because the Steelers have thrown only seven passing touchdowns this year, none of which have gone to Diontae Johnson. Kenny Pickett has thrown just three touchdowns in eight starts, the same number as Mitchell Trubisky has thrown in five. Chase Claypool accounts for Pittsburgh’s other passing touchdown.
Johnson’s lack of scoring hasn’t been for a lack of volume. He leads the Steelers in red-zone targets with 11, giving him a team-high red-zone target share of 32.4%. Four of those targets came from within the 10-yard line, which ties him with only tight end Pat Freiermuth for the most looks that close to the end zone. With Najee Harris possibly sidelined, the Steelers may need to find other options in the end zone.
Steelers Betting Prediction: Diontae Johnson Hits Paydirt
No. 3. Steven Sims Posts Seasons Highs
When the Steelers moved on from Chase Claypool, they created a void at slot receiver that Steven Sims has filled. Since Claypool’s departure, Sims has seen a significant uptick in usage. He has averaged 15.3 routes run per game since the trade deadline, and he has a route participation rate of 45% or higher over the last two weeks. Most of that work — 55.5%, to be exact — has come out of the slot. Sims has earned an average of 2.3 targets per game through that span.
Sims isn’t a great athlete, but slot receivers often benefit from defensive mismatches. He should get the chance to capitalize on a few of those this Sunday, especially since the Falcons won’t rush Kenny Pickett through his progressions. The Falcons have allowed big games to several slot receivers this year, including an eight-catch, 155-yard performance by Tyler Boyd and a seven-catch, 114-yard performance by Jarvis Landry. Although Sims won’t get the volume those guys receive, he should see enough looks to beat his season-high in receiving yardage.
Steelers Betting Prediction: Steven Sims Plays a Role
