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Super Bowl Longest Touchdown Bet: 49ers Studs Enough to Hit the Over?

Super Bowl Longest Touchdown O/U 37.5 Yards

The most important thing to know with longest touchdown props is that they do not need to be plays from scrimmage. Any type of play could cash the over or the under — kick return, pick-6, etc. — and if no touchdowns are scored, the under is the winner. First let’s take a look at the longest touchdowns from the past 10 Super Bowls:

Super Bowl Longest Touchdown Trends

YearType of TD (Scorer)Yards
2014Kick Return (Percy Harvin)87
2015Passing (Rob Gronkowski)22
2016Rushing (C.J. Anderson)2
2017Interception (Robert Alford)82
2018Passing (Alshon Jeffery)34
2019Rushing (Sony Michel)2
2020Rushing (Damien Williams)38
2021Rushing (Leonard Fournette)27
2022Passing (Tee Higgins)75
2023Passing (A.J. Brown)45

This is a pretty good sign that DraftKings has set a good line at 37.5. Exactly five times in the last 10 years has the longest touchdown in the Super Bowl gone over 37.5 — including one that landed on 38 — and the five unders on that number include a 34 that was also pretty close.

There have been two long defense/special teams in this period as well, though the last was seven years ago. More recently, we’ve seen long touchdown passes win out with Higgins and Brown. Interestingly enough, last year’s Super Bowl nearly had two touchdowns go over 37.5 yards, as the Chiefs’ Nick Bolton returned a fumble 36 yards for a touchdown to narrowly fall short of it.

The two teams playing this year are on the splashier side — especially San Francisco — which is good because a kick return touchdown is basically out the window. Chances are good that just about every kick will go through the end zone. A punt return is more in play since Ray-Ray McCloud and Richie James are both decent return men, but neither has a punt return touchdown in their career. James does have a kick return score, however.

As far as potential for a pick-6 or scoop-and-score, these two defenses are both pretty capable. Kansas City returned a league-high two fumbles for touchdowns and forced 15 (11th in NFL), while the 49ers led the league in interceptions and were second in interception yards. They had just one defensive touchdown, however.

The Chiefs were also one of the more giveaway-prone teams in the NFL this season, with their 28 tying for seventh most. San Francisco, on the other hand, turned the ball over the sixth-least often.

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That said, offense is most likely to be the source of the longest touchdown simply based on the percentages. The question then is, what are the odds of a long touchdown going for 38 yards or more?

Well, the 49ers definitely have options with four of the biggest home run threats at their position: Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk was second in the NFL in yards per reception and per target this year, and the other three are all elite threats after the catch — Kittle and Samuel are top 10 at their position in YAC per reception), while McCaffrey led all running backs in total YAC. Plus, there is the matter of McCaffrey already posting a 39-yard touchdown run in these playoffs.

Those guys alone make the over on 37.5 a worthwhile play, but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes to also get the job done — even if his receivers aren’t always the most conducive to big plays. After all, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson are certainly capable of taking the top off the defense — even if the whole “catching it” thing is a mixed bag.

All told, there are too many weapons in this game to commit to the under on 37.5 — which no one really wants to play anyway unless it has a good chance of making them money. Both sides of this bet are -110, and the over simply looks better. Sprinkle longest touchdown over 37.5 for Super Bowl 58.

Best Super Bowl Longest Touchdown Bet: Over 37.5 Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

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