If anyone ever told you betting on the NFL playoffs was tough, they weren’t kidding. Think about it: No sport in America even comes close to the NFL in terms of popularity or money wagered. Now take all of that attention and condense it into the postseason. It’s no wonder the margins get tighter and the spots harder to find. But that’s the beauty of it. We don’t need to bet every game or throw darts at every line. Instead, we’re here to find the spots that stand out and maximize those opportunities. Wild Card Weekend gives us six games — two Saturday, three Sunday and one on Monday night. Let’s break them down and target the best Wild Card NFL bets.
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Wild Card Weekend NFL Best Bets, Sides & Totals
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Chargers at Texans (+3): 42.5 Total
This is a competitive matchup, no question about it. I’ve been a fan of the Chargers all season, especially with Justin Herbert under Jim Harbaugh’s guidance. But even with Herbert’s brilliance and a relatively easy schedule, this line feels a bit inflated.
The Texans have their flaws — C.J. Stroud has taken some rough hits, and losing Tank Dell hurts — but the market is overvaluing the Chargers here. The Texans have shown grit, especially in their bounce back against the Titans last week. And while Houston isn’t a juggernaut, it is capable of keeping this one close at home.
Defensively, the Chargers haven’t excelled against competent offenses. Houston still has playmakers like Nico Collins and a defense that can create enough resistance to keep them competitive. I’m taking the Texans +3 in this spot.
Best Chargers-Texans Bet: Texans +3
Steelers at Ravens (-9.5): 43.5 Total
Division games in the playoffs are always tricky. Historically, the Steelers thrive as underdogs in spots like this, but their recent postseason history is less encouraging — they’ve lost by double digits in their last three playoff appearances.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are a different beast. Lamar Jackson brings a dynamic edge, and Baltimore’s defense is strong enough to keep Pittsburgh’s struggling offense in check. The Steelers are averaging just 14 points per game over their last four contests, and George Pickens looks like he’s on the verge of a meltdown.
Still, I’m not laying nearly 10 points on Baltimore in a divisional playoff game. Instead, I’m leaning toward under 43.5. Jackson’s postseason games have all hit the under (4-0-1), and I expect a hard-fought AFC North grind here. Give me the under 44.
Best Steelers-Ravens Bet: Under 43.5
Broncos at Bills (-8.5): 46.5 Total
This game is fascinating because it could go in either extreme direction. The Bills might blow the Broncos out, or Denver could surprise everyone and keep it close. While Sean Payton has done an admirable job coaching this young Broncos squad, they’re heading into Buffalo for their first playoff test with an inexperienced roster. That’s a tough ask.
Buffalo’s postseason experience gives them the edge here, even against a Broncos defense that’s been solid, especially in the secondary. It’s a lean, but I’m siding with the Bills -8.5 in this one. The talent gap and homefield advantage might just be too much for Denver to overcome.
Best Broncos-Bills Bet: Bills -8.5
Packers at Eagles (-4.5): 45.5 Total
This is shaping up to be a great matchup. Jalen Hurts is expected to clear concussion protocol and suit up for the Eagles, who’ve had extra rest after sitting key starters in Week 18. Meanwhile, the Packers are dealing with injuries to Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Jaire Alexander.
Both teams are familiar with cold-weather games, so that’s a non-factor. But the Eagles are healthier and have more talent on both sides of the ball. Philadelphia also boasts an elite offensive line and a rested roster. While the Packers showed promise this year, the Eagles at -4.5 feel like the play here, especially at home.
Best Packers-Eagles Bet: Eagles -4.5
