Let’s dive into the top betting angles from the NHL’s rare eight-game Monday slate, which offers several enticing plays on player prop markets, as well as a side. One of the most intriguing bets of the night comes with a little potential history in Alex Ovechkin going for goal No. 801, which would tie him for second most in NHL history with Gordie Howe. For more of the best NHL bets and NHL props, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool.
NHL Best Bets for Tonight | Dec. 19
Kent Johnson Over 0.5 Points +130 (Dallas Stars versus Columbus Blue Jackets):
Due to the unfortunate injury to Blue Jackets Captain Boone Jenner, 2021 5th overall pick Kent Johnson is going to skate on Columbus top powerplay unit, and top even strength line alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine.
Gaudreau has remained in quietly brilliant form this season, despite playing on a Columbus side which is simply horrific, anyway you want to cut it.
Gaudreau’s brilliance was a large causation of Jenner recording 22 points in 30 games, which includes a single point in 17 of those 30 games played (56.37%). Johnson has managed at least a single point in 14 of 27 games played (51.85%), which already makes this prop interesting at +130.
Now factor in the notion that Johnson is likely to generate at higher rate skating in his newfound roles, and +130 projects to be an extremely valuable price to back this prop.
Johnson is a notably talented offensive player who holds significant offensive upside moving forward in his NHL career. It is logical to believe he can replicate Jenner’s numbers as he overtakes those roles on the team, and +130 will likely be a price that does not exist for long looking towards Johnson’s point market.
Alex Ovechkin Anytime Goalscorer +102 (Detroit Red Wings versus Washington Capitals):
Alex Ovechkin’s next goal will tie the late Gordie Howe for second on the NHL’s all-time goal scoring chart, and to round out the narrative perfectly, the Capitals will take on Howe’s Detroit Red Wings Monday night at Capital One Arena.
Detroit’s defensive play has fallen off over the last ten games, as the Red Wings has allowed 3.60 goals against per game. Their underlying results are not any better, as the Red Wings 3.66 xGA/60 over those ten games suggests the downpour of opposition tallies has been far from bad luck.
Ovechkin has scored one goal or more in 8 of his last 15 contests, and as the Capitals have gotten healthier and trended into better form has continued to manage far more chances on goal, with an average of 5.66 shots on target over his last six games.
Ovechkin tying Howe at home is a narrative which sets up so perfectly, and there are some logical underlying numbers which suggest he can score in this spot at a better clip than +102 suggests.
Buffalo Sabres Moneyline +150 (Sabres versus Golden Knights):
Buffalo has quietly been the league’s best offensive side this season and has generated 3.97 goals per game with three strong forward units, and an elite powerplay unit.
That automatically makes Buffalo interesting as a heavy underdog in any spot, and tonight’s matchup versus Vegas seems a great time to target an underrated Eastern Conference side playing versus the Western Conference leading Knights.
The Eastern Conference has clearly proven to be the significantly deeper of the NHL’s two, and the Sabres are a perfect example of a team which would likely be sporting a drastically better record were it not to be competing in an absolutely stacked Atlantic Division.
The Sabres have rolled to an 8-2-2 record over the last 12 contests and have controlled play to an expected goals share of 50.29 during that span. Over the same time period Vegas has played to a 50.65% expected goals share, and a record of 7-6-0.
Vegas has fought through some crucial absences during that span and will have Alex Pietrangelo back tonight which helps the situation to be sure, but overall, the gulf between these teams is not as gigantic as this betting price indicates for the time being.
