Early on Tuesday morning, the United States take on Portugal at the Women’s World Cup as they look to advance past the group stage for the ninth consecutive time. In this post, we’ll be making our USA-Portugal predictions and pick, but more on that after some context.
Vietnam are the only team mathematically eliminated from Group E, so there are a lot of situations that can still play out on Tuesday. The USWNT are atop the group on four points, so a win or draw will take them straight through. As we saw against the Netherlands though, this team is not completely flawless and they can be caught out by the right opponents. A loss against a Portuguese side in their first ever Women’s World Cup would leave the States’ fate in the hands of the Netherlands and could send shockwaves around the sporting world. Regardless, let’s get right into our USA-Portugal predictions and bets for their third game at the Women’s World Cup.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: USA-Portugal Odds
| USA Moneyline | -400 |
| Portugal Moneyline | +950 |
| Draw Moneyline | +475 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: -130, Under: -110 |
| Location | Eden Park, Auckland, New Zealand |
| Time | 3 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Odds & Recent History
To start, the USWNT are big moneyline favorites here with -400 odds, equating to an implied win probability of 80%. While they dropped points in their last time out against the Netherlands, the USWNT are the field favorites for a reason. They have never failed to qualify for the knockout rounds and they also have never not won against a team debuting in their first World Cup, which is quite significant.
To make matters worse for Portugal, they know exactly what they are up against. These sides have played in ten head-to-head matches, with five in the last six years. All ten matches went in favor of the Stars and Stripes, outscoring the European nation by a whopping 39-0. While the most recent matches were much closer, the burden of that history will continue to hang a dark cloud over the Portuguese players.
Additionally, the spread also backs the United States significantly with the -1.5 line sitting at -135. Conversely, Portugal covering at +1.5 sits at -110. Two of their last four head-to-head meetings have fallen within that margin, so it is something to consider.
On the goal front, the over on 2.5 goals is slightly favored, but not by much. This World Cup has been trending towards the under, with 58.8% of matches falling under 2.5 total goals. Even the USWNT are experiencing this, falling under this total in four out of their last five matches.
USA-Portugal Prediction
At this point, it is not hard to tell what the USWNT’s weaknesses are. Their manager, Vlatko Andonovski struggles with game management, the offense is not sharp enough and they can get sort of frustrated when teams play physically.
The good news is that the Americans can really control two of these things. Hopefully, Vlatko actually uses the likes of Lynn Williams, Rose Lavelle and Sofia Huerta to add some sort of spark to this team. Leaving a starting eleven unchanged in a virtual elimination match, when there are visible problems would simply be novice.
With this change, hopefully the offense would sort of mend itself. We have seen great glimpses of Sophia Smith this tournament, but aside from her, Lindsey Horan has been the biggest provider of offense. Trinity Rodman has failed to make an impact and despite people not wanting to hear this, Alex Morgan has not been good enough. The 34-year old has failed to score or even put one on frame on six shots, with an xG of 1.7. With this in mind, I would not make a play in favor of the USWNT until I see the starting eleven.
For Portugal, they should hone in on being rough with the Americans, simply to break up their rhythm. It seemed to work for both the Netherlands and Vietnam. Aside from that, their defense is impressive as-is, keeping four clean sheets and only conceding five times in their last eight contests. Manager Francisco Neto does have some quality attackers at his disposal, but none that would be more threatening than normal for the United States.
With all of that being said, I am swaying away from a play on the result of this match. I think Portugal are a little underrated, and once again, I am hesitant to back the USWNT without seeing Vlatko’s setup. Instead, ride under 2.5 total goals (-110) and Sophia Smith to score (+105). I am not backing down on my pick for her to be the highest American goalscorer just yet.
Final USA-Portugal Prediction: Under 2.5 total goals (-110, DraftKings)
Sophia Smith to score (+105, DraftKings)
