If you’re serious about making money in sports betting, there’s one concept you must understand: Expected value (EV). It’s the difference between casual bets and sharp strategy. EV helps you identify whether a bet will make you money over time or cost you in the long run. This article will walk you through how to calculate expected value, how it ties into the probability of winning and losing, and why it’s crucial to understand EV before placing your next bet. We’ll use only American odds to help you see EV in action.
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Calculating Expected Value in Sports Betting Explained
Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose on a bet if you placed that same wager over and over again. It’s a long-term concept: A single bet might win or lose, but over time EV tells you whether the bet is profitable.
- Positive EV (+EV): The bet should make you money in the long run.
- Negative EV (-EV): The bet is expected to lose money over time.
Knowing your expected return helps you make logical, math-backed decisions — not emotional ones.
Understanding American Odds
American odds are based on $100 units:
- Negative odds (e.g. -150): You must bet that amount to win $100. A -150 line means you risk $150 to profit $100.
- Positive odds (e.g. +200): You win that amount for every $100 bet. A +200 line means a $100 bet returns $200 in profit.
These values help us plug into the EV formula.
Calculating Expected Value
Here’s the formula:
Expected Value = (Probability of Winning x Profit if Win) – (Probability of Losing x Amount Bet)
- Probability of winning is how often you believe the bet will win (e.g., 60% = 0.60).
- Profit if win is how much you’ll profit based on the odds.
- Probability of losing is just 1 minus the win probability.
- Amount bet is your stake.
Example: NFL Underdog at +150
You want to bet $100 on the Ravens at +150 odds.
- Profit if win: $150
- Your win probability estimate: 42% (0.42)
- Probability of losing: 58% (0.58)
EV = (0.42 x $150) – (0.58 x $100); EV = $63 – $58 = +$5
That’s a +EV bet. If you made this bet 100 times, you’d expect to profit $5 per bet.
Why Expected Value Matters
Understanding expected value in sports betting helps you:
- Avoid bets with a negative expected return, even if they feel like a “lock”
- Find profitable opportunities that casual bettors overlook
- Treat betting like an investment rather than gambling
- Focus on long-term results rather than short-term wins and losses
You won’t win every bet. But if you consistently place +EV bets based on accurate probability of winning, you’re setting yourself up for long-term success.
Final Thoughts
Calculating expected value isn’t just for math nerds. It’s for anyone who wants to win more often and lose less over the long haul. Whatever sport you bet, understanding your expected return is the first step to becoming a sharp sports bettor.
When in doubt, ask: Is this bet +EV? If the answer’s yes, you’re on the right track.
