Every time you look at a sportsbook line, you’re seeing two different numbers — even if it doesn’t look that way on the surface. There’s the implied probability, which is how likely the sportsbook says something is to happen based on the odds they set. And then there’s the true odds, which reflect the actual probability based on market data, projection, and predictive signals. If you’re betting without knowing the difference, you’re probably giving away value on every wager. That’s where Portfolio EV comes in — a tool that exposes the edge hidden between true odds and implied probability.
True Odds vs. Implied Probability: Portfolio EV Calculator
Portfolio EV makes it easy to grow your bankroll and maximize long-term profits. Start finding more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page to get started!
Understanding True Odds vs. Implied Probability
Let’s break it down with an example:
You see a bet listed at +150 on your sportsbook. That line translates to an implied probability of 40% (using the formula: 100 / (odds + 100)).
But let’s say your model — or better yet, a tool like Portfolio EV — determines the true probability is 45%.
That means the line is mispriced. The sportsbook is offering worse odds than what the true probability suggests.
You’ve found a +EV bet. That’s expected value: When the payout outweighs the risk over the long term.
Why Most Bettors Never See This
Sportsbooks make money because casual bettors don’t run the math. They bet on gut feels, narratives or “locks” — never realizing they’re consistently betting into negative expected value.
That’s where Portfolio EV flips the script.
What Is Portfolio EV?
Portfolio EV is a market-based sports betting tool that finds bets with positive expected value by comparing:
- True odds based on predictive models, market signals and sharp action
- Implied odds from the sportsbook lines
- And the difference — your expected edge per bet
Instead of chasing one “big win,” Portfolio EV helps you build a diversified portfolio of small edges across the entire market — sides, props, totals, parlays, and more.
Place volume. Let the math work. And watch your edge compound.
How to Use Portfolio EV to Your Advantage
When you log in to Portfolio EV, you’ll instantly see the Top Bets of the day — ranked by EV, with true probability, line shopping and projected ROI already calculated.
You can:
- Filter by sportsbook
- Bet straight, parlay, or mass entry
- Export and tail directly through the Mass Entry tool
This is smart sports betting — not guessing, not gambling. Just math, volume and edge.
