When you enter the sports betting and pick’em world, one of the first things you notice is how nice overs look. After all, cheering for points and action is far more appealing than rooting for a slow-paced, low-scoring game. However, if you’re wondering how to make money sports betting long-term, betting on the unders is the +EV move — one trip to the top-projected bets in Portfolio EV for proof of that.
Take a look at FantasyGuruDrew. He noticed that Greg Ehrenberg’s bankroll building with Portfolio EV was largely succeeding due to betting unders, so he went with that strategy for his NBA DraftKings Pick6 sets.
How to Make Money in Sports Betting: Take More Unders
The general public loves excitement — aka scoring. This means that, on average, they place more money on overs than unders. Sportsbooks and DFS sites are aware of this bias and often set totals to appeal to public inclinations, subtly inflating them to account for the volume of bets on overs. The public’s bias is often already priced in by sportsbooks, creating a value imbalance that sharp bettors can exploit by taking the under.
This is why you so often see unders projecting the best in Portfolio EV and with our expert picks. Since totals are influenced by public demand, an under bet might give you a slight edge because the line is set a bit too high, taking public sentiment into account rather than strictly the projected scoring.
Betting unders can also create a psychological advantage. It’s common to feel a sense of instant gratification when you’re betting the over — every score feels like you’re inching closer to victory. However, betting the under gives you the upper hand in scenarios where game flow slows down, weather goes crazy, etc. This psychological aspect allows under bettors to take advantage of the market without falling prey to the emotions and biases of the average fan.
By the way — you can get Portfolio EV for FREE! All you need to do is sign up with one of our partners, make a pick and send us the screenshot of the pick when it settles. Click the image below to get started!
By consistently betting unders in situations where the public is overwhelmingly on the over, you’re aligning yourself with Portfolio EV betting, which ultimately give you the highest long-term profitability potential.
While unders might not deliver the adrenaline rush of cheering for more points, they offer a more contrarian strategy that can lead to sustainable profit — especially when you’re making a lot of bets and building portfolios. By understanding the factors that drive sportsbooks to adjust for public perception, you can gain a significant advantage and become a sharper bettor.
