The 2022 World Cup top goal-scoring props have some value to offer, and there are a few future props that stand out as well. The following analysis highlights some 2022 World Cup prop betting spots that you can take advantage of, including some ways to sprinkle in future outright bets for the tournament’s winner.
Two heavy hitters, Neymar for Brazil and Lionel Messi for Argentina, stand out, but there are a lot of opportunities to analyze before getting to those spots. In addition to strong betting opportunities the 2022 World Cup should be a spot to find exciting edges in DFS tournaments. Sign up for our premium Soccer DFS projections today!
2022 World Cup Odds: Golden Boot & Outright Odds
Betting on who will be the top goal scorer in the World Cup is always interesting and it makes for a fun sweat. When you are backing a player to score goals, you cannot simply count on the games that they’re guaranteed in the group stage. It’s also important that they go deep into the tournament. That seems obvious enough but the odds do not incorporate these outcomes.
The two countries with the highest chance to make the final match of the World Cup are Brazil and Argentina. That is where you can find value backing goal scorers.
Harry Kane is the favorite to win the Golden Boot. The problem with Kane’s chance is that England hasn’t been showing off their offense relative to the amount of talent on their team. Kane does lead the club in goals and on the heels of an impressive run in qualifications. However, in the Nations League he scored just two goals in five starts. In the Euro Championships Kane tallied just four goals in seven outings. These are the big stage moments where his output has disappeared.
Kane’s odds are sitting at +700, which just doesn’t make much sense. Additionally, England is going to have a hard time making it even as far as the semifinals. They are coming off two recent losses to Hungary and Italy which doesn’t bode well for their current form. Those two countries didn’t even qualify for the World Cup. England drew Germany twice which is going to be tough in the coming weeks.
If you’re going to back Kane that it makes more sense to pair the bet with England winning the World Cup since the outcomes are correlative. Remember, Kane did win the Golden Boot in the last World Cup so if the team does overperform and make a deep run this year the bet is in a good spot.
Neymar and Messi are heavy hitters for heavy favorites
Brazil and Argentina are back and fourth on the favorite list to win it all. Argentina is the side to back if both meet in the finals. Either way, there are some interesting prop bets along the way.
Neymar holds value for Brazil on two props: goal scorer at +1000 and assists, which should be in the value range. Neymar accounted for 41% of Brazil’s scoring in the qualifications. This was done via an even split of goals and assists. Brazil are favored to win, and Neymar is a big part of everything they do on the offense including taking penalties.
There is a case to back Richarlison who stood second on the club in scoring, but his lack of run time at for new club Tottenham is a concerning sign about his fitness. Gabriel Jesus on the other hand has skyrocketed in status, and he should start for the Brazil side. However, there are just so many pieces on Brazil that soak up usage, including Roberto Firmino and Raphinha, so the pony to back is the solidified man, Neymar.
Argentina has a similar dilemma in the scoring department, as Lautaro Martinez has been keeping pace with Lionel Messi. The only time that Argentina was kept off the score sheet during qualifications was against Brazil. Messi and Martinez both led the bulk of the scoring with eight goals a piece in that stretch. Messi dominated the shot attempts in the run and he is mister do it all for his club.
Argentina is much improved around Messi and their defense is one of the best in the world. The volume and penalties are there for him. The strong chance that Argentina will win the World Cup makes backing Messi a great value at +1000. In fact, throwing a half unit on Neymar and one on Messi is the best play if the book offers even odds on that wager.
The sprinkle play that correlates to the prediction of Argentina lifting the trophy is taking Martinez to win the Golden Boot which stands at +2000. Favoring Brazil over Argentina makes a sprinkle on the opposition worth it as well by betting Jesus at +2500 and Richarlison at +2000. Finally, we cannot count out Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Junior at +2800.
Mitrovic and Serbia are sneaky
Every bettor loves a dark horse, and there is none that fits the mold better than Aleksander Mitrovic. The Serbian striker is putting on a scoring clinic in the EPL for Fulham. There is a realistic chance Serbia gets knocked out in the group stage, but Switzerland is not exactly the most imposing threat. Serbia has the offensive weapons to upset the group and advance. Mitrovic leads the way for the nation with 46% of the goals in qualifications and the penalties. He has talent to help get him the chances with Dusan Tadic and Filip Kostic. Mitrovic has done more in the EPL with arguably less talent.
Mitrovic stands at +5000. The side is reliant on him and the form is there. If they come away with an upset in their group and make it out then the volume will be there for Mitrovic to make cash this best.
Finally as per the punting and dreaming for the USMNT, should he make the final roster for the World Cup, Haji Wright Golden boot at the odds that have yet to be posted but should be closer to the start of the event.
Final 2022 World Cup Golden Boot Picks: Neymar (+1000, DraftKings) and Lionel Messi (+1000) at DraftKings.
