Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Monday July 6 Best Bets
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) ran the Monday, July 6 edition of his MLB Leans, Likes & Locks show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel — the last card before the All-Star break — and walked all eight games one at a time, attaching a real price to every play and passing on anything that did not clear his break-even number. This is the recap: the five bets he actually fired, the read behind each one, and the leans he is still watching for lineups and weather.
In Summary
- Shane Drohan (MIL) Under 4.5 Strikeouts is the number to circle. It was takeable at -130 (Bet365) against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that strikes out at nearly the lowest clip in baseball — and the OddsShopper +EV screen has the fair price at -141, so -130 is a real edge, not a coin flip.
- New York Mets Moneyline at a plus-money price, with Freddy Peralta (NYM) on the mound at Atlanta. The market treats Peralta like he is broken; the read has this closer to a coin flip.
- Two home run darts for a quarter unit each: Edmundo Sosa (PHI) in Kauffman Stadium and Junior Caminero (TB) against a fly-ball-prone right-hander.
- A game total: Diamondbacks-Padres over 8.5, the favorite play on the card, with two righty-power lineups facing arms that leak power.
- The thread through all of it is the same one the show is built on: find the gap between the fair price and the number on the screen. New to OddsShopper? The tools are free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro.
Watch The Video
Lindy walks the entire eight-game board game by game in the show below. This article pulls out the plays he actually fired and the reasoning behind each; the full card is in the video.
Watch on YouTube
Monday's Card At A Glance
Here are the five fired plays, with the read on each. Prices move fast — treat these as the reasoning, not a live quote, and always confirm the current number on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you bet.
| Play | Game / Spot | The Read |
|---|
| Shane Drohan Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130, Bet365) | Brewers at Cardinals | St. Louis has the second-lowest team K rate in MLB; fair price is -141, so -130 is value |
| New York Mets Moneyline | Mets at Braves, Peralta vs. López | Priced like Peralta is bad — the read has it near a coin flip |
| Edmundo Sosa To Homer | Phillies at Royals, vs. Noah Cameron | A run-producing lineup spot against a lefty in a park playing up for power |
| Junior Caminero To Homer | Yankees at Rays, vs. Cam Schlittler | Schlittler is bleeding righty power and elevating; Caminero is the hottest bat in the sport |
| Diamondbacks-Padres Over 8.5 | at Petco | Two righty-power lineups vs. two arms that give up righty power |
The Fired Plays
Shane Drohan Under 4.5 Strikeouts — The Best Number On The Board
Here is the cleanest edge on the card. Shane Drohan (MIL) draws the St. Louis Cardinals, a lineup that punches out at the second-lowest rate in baseball and sits under 18% against left-handers. Drohan is a confirmed southpaw, and even his healthier strikeout rate against righties runs into a wall here: Iván Herrera (STL) is under 14%, Jordan Walker (STL) is around 22%, and the back of the order — Alec Burleson (STL) and J.J. Wetherholt (STL) from the left side — barely strikes out at all. The one bat that hurts the under, Pedro Pages (STL) and his ~30% clip, hits at the bottom of the order.
The under 4.5 was available at -130 at Bet365, and that is where line shopping earns its keep: the de-vigged fair price is -141, so -130 is roughly a 3.6% edge — a real number, not a guess. The play is worth about a third of a unit to win a quarter, and it stays live up to about -145. That gap is exactly what the OddsShopper +EV screen is built to surface: same bet, better number, before the vig eats it.
New York Mets Moneyline — A Coin Flip Priced Like A Mismatch
Freddy Peralta (NYM) takes the ball in Atlanta against Reynaldo López (ATL), and the market is treating the Mets like a clear dog. That is the disagreement. Peralta has been cold and the Mets bats have been quiet, but a plus-money price bakes in more downside than the matchup deserves — López is not the arm the number implies, and this profiles closer to a coin flip. There is real lefty power to respect on the Atlanta side in Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL), so this is a small, disciplined play, not a hammer. Size it to what your bankroll and your read allow.
Edmundo Sosa To Homer — A Quarter-Unit Dart In Kansas City
Kauffman Stadium is a park playing up for power this summer, and the angle here is entirely about the Phillies' lineup card. Philadelphia has faced right-handed starters all week, which has kept Edmundo Sosa (PHI) and Derek Hill (PHI) on the bench. Monday brings a lefty in Noah Cameron (KC), and that is where Sosa profiles into a run-producing spot in the order — potentially a five-or-six hole against a starter he can drive, with the platoon edge pointing his way. It is a small plus-money flier, a quarter unit, and the read leans on the lineup shifting in his favor. (If the lineup lands right, Hill at a fair number and batting seventh or better is a live add for the same reason — but that one is a lean, not a fired bet.)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is on the other side and is one of the best arms in baseball, so this is a targeted swing, not a fade of a bad pitcher.
Junior Caminero To Homer — Chasing The Hottest Bat In The Game
Junior Caminero (TB) has been the hottest hitter in baseball over the last month, and Cam Schlittler (NYY) sets up as the arm to attack him against. Schlittler has given up loud right-handed power lately — a ~240 ISO to righties over his last four starts — and he elevates, with a fastball he releases at a steep launch angle that right-handed bats have crushed for a high expected ISO. Yes, the Trop is a tougher home run environment than Yankee Stadium, which tempers it slightly. But at a longshot plus-money price for a bat this locked in against a fly-ball profile that leaks power, it is worth a quarter unit. If you want to fire it, wait for confirmed lineups so you know your hitter is in and getting a plate appearance.
Diamondbacks-Padres Over 8.5 — The Favorite Play On The Card
The over in San Diego is the play the show liked best, even at under a half unit — a quantity-of-edge bet rather than a single outlier. Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) and Walker Buehler (SD) both give up right-handed power, and both lineups are built to punish it. The Padres bring righty thump in Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) and Manny Machado (SD) against Pfaadt, whose stuff has not been sharp. Buehler's damage has come same-side, righty-on-righty, which points at Arizona's right-handed power in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (AZ); the concern is that Ketel Marte (AZ) hits from the left side against him and Corbin Carroll (AZ) is not a favorite bat in this exact spot.
The reason it is not a full unit is honest: Arizona's lefty side has to prove it can do damage against Buehler, and there is bullpen risk on both sides if either starter gets pulled early. The Padres moneyline was in range, but the price was already a touch shaded, so the over is the cleaner way to bet the run production.
The Leans He Is Still Watching
Not everything on the show got fired. These stayed leans, and they stay in the leans bucket — worth tracking, not yet bets:
- Griffin Jax (TB) Strikeouts Over The Posted Number — this one is close to in play, with an alt line that looked appealing as a way to keep a book account healthy; watch the number.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) And Luis García (WSH) Home Runs — both real leans against arms that leak lefty power in Washington, but there is a 63% rain chance at Nationals Park and D.C. is notoriously unpredictable with delays and call-offs. The move is to wait on the weather rather than bet a possible in-game mess the night before.
- San Francisco Giants As A Home Dog — Landen Roupp (SF) grades as one of the unluckiest pitchers in the model, with actual power numbers well above his expected marks. If the Giants get to even money or better against Kevin Gausman (TOR), there is a side there; below that, Oracle Park is too tough a run environment to force it.
- Rockies-Dodgers Over — a lean built on run production and some left-on-left interest against Eric Lauer (LAD), with nothing official in the book yet.
How To Bet These The Right Way
Every play above comes back to one habit: bet the number, not the name. Drohan's under is only a play because -130 beats a -141 fair price — that is the whole game, and it is why the show banks closing line value instead of chasing results. The OddsShopper odds screen and +EV tools do the price-gap math for you across 100+ books, so you are firing when the number is in your favor and passing when it is not.
If you want the same tools Lindy uses to find these spots, OddsShopper Pro includes the full odds screen and the live in-game tool, with a 7-day free trial. Code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro.
Odds move fast and lineups change — confirm the current price and that your player is in the lineup before you bet. Bet responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
