The World Series moves to Philadelphia for Game 3 with the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros tied at one game apiece. After Monday night’s postponement, each game in this series got pushed back one day.
This post will focus on OddsShopper’s Astros-Phillies Game 3 prediction, odds and pick.
Astros-Phillies World Series Game 3 Odds
Lance McCullers to Continue Strong Return
Lance McCullers will start for the Astros. Since making his season debut in August after missing more than half the season with a forearm injury, the right-hander has been dominant.
He is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, including his two playoff starts. His underlying metrics are also outstanding: He boasts a .294 xwOBA, .224 xBA and .342 xSLG.
Will this success continue against Philadelphia? In his one career start against the Phillies on Oct. 3, he allowed one run on six hits in six innings.
Following McCullers is one of the best bullpens in baseball. During the regular season, Houston’s relief pitching ranked first in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in batting average, second in slugging, second in wOBA and first in FIP.
Additionally, this pitching staff should get a good amount of run support as the Astros are slated to go against left-hander Ranger Suarez. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Houston ranked eighth in the league in batting average, second in slugging, second in OPS and third in wOBA.
Through 23 career plate appearances against Suarez, this current Astros roster boasts a .429 batting average, 1.000 slugging and .609 wOBA.
As mentioned above, Suarez is now taking the bump for Philadelphia due to the postponement of Monday’s game. Serving as a dual-threat pitcher, Suarez has appeared as both a reliever and starter throughout this postseason.
The results have been good as the left-hander boasts a 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through four postseason appearances. However, now is the time to sell high on Suarez.
In his lone career start against the Astros, the left-hander got shelled as he allowed six runs on seven hits through just three innings pitched. More of the same is likely looming against a Houston lineup that crushes left-handed pitching.
Backing up Suarez is a fade-worthy bullpen. Over the final two months of the regular season, Philadelphia’s relief pitching ranked 27th in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 29th in batting average, 24th in slugging and 27th in wOBA.
Additionally, this pitching staff may not get much run support facing McCullers In 59 career plate appearances against him, this current Philadelphia roster has a mere .214 batting average, .321 slugging and .253 wOBA.
Final Astros-Phillies Game 3 Prediction and Pick
The only reason this line is set so low is that Philadelphia is at home, which is undoubtedly a big advantage in front of a raucous crowd. That being said, it does not make up for the difference in talent.
In this matchup, the Astros are going to have the better starting pitcher, bullpen and lineup. While Suarez has done a good job in his expanded role this postseason, it would not be shocking if he got lit up by this Houston lineup for the second time over the past month.
Final Astros-Phillies Game 3 Pick: Houston Moneyline (-125, DraftKings)
