The lone late game on today’s MLB slate is a real one-sided affair between the Athletics in Mariners in Seattle. On paper, this looks like a set-it-and-forget-it play on the Mariners since they will have Logan Gilbert on the mound against the 10-41 A’s. But not so fast — there may actually be reason to believe that Gilbert will not mow down the miserable Oakland lineup as quickly as some predict. Let’s dive into OddsShopper’s Premium Tool and find some spots to get a leg up on the Athletics-Mariners betting market.
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Best MLB Athletics-Mariners Bet & Prediction
Oakland Athletics-Seattle Mariners Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Oakland Athletics: +215 | Seattle Mariners: -245
Over 7.5: +105 | Under 7.5: -125
Logic would suggest that targeting Logan Gilbert’s strikeout over here is the right choice. After all, the Athletics have one of MLB’s worst lineups, and Gilbert has a strikeout rate over 30% this year. However, the matchup has pushed Gilbert’s line to 7.5. And despite Gilbert’s solid 10.9 strikeouts per nine, he has only gone over 7.5 strikeouts in only three of his nine starts this year, and one of those six unders came against the Athletics earlier this month (six in six innings).
The fact of the matter is that, at a rate of 10.9 strikeouts per nine, Gilbert needs to go 6.2 innings to strike out eight. That is a distance he has only gone twice this season — and he stayed under 7.5 one of those times. He is projecting for 7.0 on the dot right now, which is his exact per-game mean and his median result. In other words, statistically it is probably the most likely outcome.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Gilbert below:
The under odds are long at -152, but OddsShopper suggests the true odds are -167, so this play is beating the market on Caesars Sportsbook. That is leading to a 4% EV on a 63% win rate. If you lock this bet in now, your first bet is on Caesars up to $1,250, plus 1,000 reward credits and 1,000 tier credits!
Best Athletics-Mariners MLB Bet: Logan Gilbert Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-152, Caesars)