We’re deep into October baseball now, and that means two things: bullpen volatility and matchup edges hiding in plain sight. I have two expert MLB prop bets today: One focused on total offensive production, the other a longshot stolen base prop that’s showing real value. Everything else from my playoff card is going to be live over on Tails, where I post every verified bet before lines move.
Expert MLB Prop Bets Today: Stolen Base Props & More
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I say it all the time: October is where you win by anticipating adjustments. Managers get aggressive with bullpens and lineups get shorter. Tonight’s card has lots of opportunities, so let’s jump in.
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110)
Carpenter’s been one of Detroit’s most dependable bats down the stretch, and I’m going right back to him here against Seattle right-hander Bryce Miller.
Miller has struggled all season with left-handed power, giving up nearly a 49% hard-hit rate and 17-degree launch angle. Carpenter has to hit at the top of Detroit’s order since he could get pinch-hit for later in the game if Seattle brings in a lefty. If he leads off, though, expect three or four quality plate appearances to get to two-plus hits + runs + RBIs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to Record a Stolen Base (+588)
Now for the fun one. Pete Crow-Armstrong hasn’t been getting on base much lately, but when he does, he’s electric.
Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester has allowed seven stolen bases with four caught stealing this season, which tells me runners are taking chances on him and having success more often than not. The Brewers bullpen doesn’t do a great job holding runners either, which only adds to the upside here.
At +588, this number is just too long. My model has it closer to +400, and that’s assuming only two or three times on base. Even one well-timed single or walk could turn this into a cash.
Yes, Crow-Armstrong’s strikeouts are an issue, and yes, there’s pinch-hit risk, but he’s elite defensively, which should keep him in the lineup as long as the game’s competitive. I’m betting this for a quarter unit, and it’s one of my favorite sneaky MLB prop bets today with real upside.
See All My Free MLB Prop Bets Today on Tails
These are just two of the plays I wanted to break down here. The rest of my card — including pitcher props, total bases bets, and my favorite plus-money angles — will be live on Tails, where you can tail instantly before the odds move.
