The postseason board is loaded, and Tails experts have already fired on spots that stand out across every sportsbook screen. In particular, I like one in the moneyline market, and one MLB home run prop bet that’s simply mispriced today. These are today’s expert MLB prop bets, and you can find more plays live on Tails, where verified experts post their real bets in real time before the odds move.
After Seattle evened its series behind Jorge Polanco’s two-homer night, Game 3 between the Mariners and Tigers sets up as one of the most intriguing matchups on the playoff slate. Detroit opened around +195 and was quickly bet down as sharp bettors hammered Seattle.
Expert MLB Prop Bets Today: Home Run Props & More
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Seattle Moneyline (-135 or Better)
I don’t bet a lot of moneylines this time of year, but this one was too good to pass up. Logan Gilbert has been nails all season: A .279 xwOBA allowed, 8.6% barrel rate, and he’s striking out nearly a third of the lefties he faces. Seattle’s lineup is stacked with power up and down the order, and it has shown it can make life miserable for Jack Flaherty, who’s sitting around a 10% barrel rate with a 44% hard-hit percentage allowed.
Detroit’s lineup, outside of Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, just doesn’t have enough consistent pop to keep up. I grabbed Seattle at -130 and would play it down to about -135. It’s not flashy; it’s just the better arm, deeper pen and more balanced lineup in a short series spot where that matters more than ever.
George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+581 DraftKings)
Now for the fun part. DraftKings hung an absolutely absurd number on George Springer’s home run prop today: +581, when most other books have him in the +400 range. That’s the definition of bad pricing, and it’s the best MLB home run prop bet today by a mile.
Springer’s been smashing both lefties and righties this season, but his splits against southpaws still stand out: Elite contact, plenty of lift and the power numbers to back it up. Carlos Rodon’s a talented lefty, but he’s also giving up a 25% hard-contact rate on fastballs and a ton of fly balls when he misses up in the zone.
This is exactly the kind of matchup Springer feasts on, and in warm October weather in the Northeast, it only takes one mistake. I’d play anything better than +420, but +581 is an autoplay for me.
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