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Best Braves-Diamondbacks MLB Bet & Prediction: Great Contrarian Angle (June 4)

The Atlanta Braves will visit the Arizona Diamondbacks late on Sunday afternoon. Viewers can tune into the action live via ESPN+. Let’s get into the betting odds for Sunday afternoon’s Braves-Diamondbacks game, which will feature some excellent starting pitching, to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re getting contrarian with a play on the total with two high-powered offenses taking the field.

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Best MLB Braves-Diamondbacks Bet & Prediction: Great Contrarian Angle 

Braves-Diamondbacks Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Braves: +115 | Diamondbacks: -145
Over 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5: +100

The Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off in a pitcher’s duel on Sunday. The Braves will trot out RHP Michael Soroka (0-1), who owns a 6.00 ERA across one start and six innings pitched. The D-backs have ace RHP Zac Gallen (7-2) scheduled to take the mound. Gallen owns a 2.73 ERA and a 3.65 xERA on the season, so while he is off to a great start, at least some regression likely looms on the horizon.

But for whatever edge the D-backs will have on the mound, the Braves will have an edge on offense. Atlanta ranks fourth in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .340, and second in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .354. Arizona ranks a far less compelling ninth in wOBA at .327 and a dreadful 22nd in xwOBA at .312, which suggests their strong offensive play early this year isn’t sustainable.


Although we have a pair of high-powered offenses taking the field, I’m getting a bit contrarian with this MLB pick, and some betting trends reveal why. The D-backs are 19-12-2 (38.7%) to the under when playing at home. Likewise, the Braves are 15-12-2 (44.4%) to the under when playing on the road. While both teams feature high-powered offense and have been profitable to over bettors in opposite situations, this trend speaks to some contrarian value on the under.

We can find the under 8.5 runs priced at +100 (50%) via DraftKings Sportsbook, which makes for a solid value bet. The Braves have rarely been underdogs on the road, but when they are, they are 2-4 (33.3%) to the under. Likewise, the D-backs aren’t always favored at home, but they are 11-6 (35.3%) to the under when listed as a home favorite. If you haven’t signed up at DraftKings yet, you can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!

Best Braves-Diamondbacks MLB Bet: Under 8.5 +100 at DraftKings

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